2 charts for the lazy macroman

As the unpredictable “alchemist tariff experiment” unfolds with fresh headlines like “Possible Temporary Reprieve for Autos” and “Initiation of Chips and Drugs Probes”, Mr. Market has shifted into a more benign mood, and equity investors are beginning to lick their wounds. While future U.S. policy remains largely unpredictable, there is a growing sense that the Trump administration may have realized it pushed its financial experiment a bit too far. That said, this remains purely speculative. So, what are the key signals to watch in these uncertain times? We believe the U.S. Treasury market offers the clearest insight. The 10-year yield has retreated from recent highs above 4.5% to 4.34% this morning. In parallel, the persistent weakening of the U.S. dollar — with the euro now up nearly 10% year-to-date — suggests a temporary easing of tensions. This relative calm allows us, at least momentarily, to shift our full attention back to the companies we invest in, as they begin reporting their Q1 results.