Message from the Swiss watchmakers

Swiss watch exports fell nearly 10% in value in May. The biggest market, the U.S., was down 25% in value and China, the second biggest market, was down 17.4%.

What also stands out: it’s the wealthiest consumers who pulled back the most, with high-luxury watches down 17.1% according to the report. These products serve the very top of the income pyramid. When even they start cutting back, it’s often an early warning — not just about luxury, but about confidence more broadly.

We’re not invested in watchmakers in our European Value Fund, but we track these shifts. They often whisper before the macro data speaks.