No impact (yet)

For months, investors have debated the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policy on global trade and, ultimately, on world growth. Some even predicted the end of globalisation. So far, the data tell a more nuanced story: the volume of world merchandise trade has continued its upward trend. It is too early to conclude that disruptive tariffs have had no effect at all—underlying trade patterns between key partners may well have shifted—but at a global level, developments look far less dramatic than many headlines suggested.