The AI force

AI is no longer just a technology trend—it is now visible in the macro data. In the US, AI-related investment already represents around 1% of GDP if you only count data centres and IT manufacturing. If you widen the lens to include broader IT equipment and software, the number moves closer to 5% of GDP. Since 2022, AI-driven capex has added roughly 0.4 percentage points per year to US GDP growth on average, and in the most recent quarters total IT investment has explained close to half of overall growth.

A key question is financing. More and more, AI players are moving from self-funded spending to debt, with private credit taking a growing role. Outstanding loans to AI-linked sectors have gone from almost nothing to more than $200bn. The opportunity is real—but the pace of spending by hyperscalers is so aggressive that it can pressure near-term cash flows and stretch balance sheets. Investors can stay constructive, but this is also a market where discipline still matters.