Business as usual

Trump’s second presidency marks its first year. For investors, the past months have been anything but quiet: tariff announcements, renewed trade tensions, and repeated questions around central-bank independence have translated into headline risk and higher volatility. We start 2026 with another round of “gunboat diplomacy”, where global trade is increasingly used as a negotiating tool. With Europe now in the spotlight, expect more noise in the coming months.
The chart is a useful reminder of a broader point: markets have always had to digest politics, shocks and uncertainty — yet, over the long run, equities tend to keep moving forward and create wealth through compounding. Statistically, in fact, since 1900, the year following a 10%+ return year was also positive 71% of the time.