This time is different ?

Sell-side strategists increasingly argue that higher US equity valuations are justified by a less volatile economy. The chart makes the point clearly: the share of months spent in recession fell from 19% (pre-1992) to 8% (post-1992). In that framework, lower macro volatility warrants a higher multiple.
At European Capital Partners , we remain somewhat sceptical. Yes, the US economy has become more service- and technology-driven, and headline resilience has improved. But it is not recession-proof—especially in a period of geopolitical disruption, stretched fiscal dynamics, and a labour market that could be structurally reshaped by AI. Valuations can stay elevated for long stretches, but they are not an insurance policy.
For investors, the practical takeaway is unchanged: stay humble, manage risk, and remain disciplined. Compounding does the heavy lifting—provided you avoid the big mistakes.