76 USD oil at year end ?

Yesterday, we highlighted that the oil forward curve remains in backwardation, with December 2026 Brent prices still in the mid-$70s. Our conclusion was that the oil futures market is pricing a short-term shock rather than a lasting structural oil crisis. In other words, traders do not appear to believe that the current escalation will keep oil prices at extreme levels for very long, but rather that some form of stabilization or ceasefire will eventually emerge.

Today’s chart, based on the latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, points in the same direction. More than half of fund managers expect oil to be below USD 80 per barrel by year-end 2026. Only 3% believe oil will remain above USD 100, which would imply a much more lasting oil shock.

At ECP, we hope that both survey data and futures markets are right. At the same time, we must remain vigilant, ready to adapt to a fluid situation, and prepared for a less benign scenario, however unlikely it may seem today.