AI Capex

Capex at large tech companies has clearly taken off. A growing share of EBITDA is being reinvested into AI infrastructure, while the rest of the companies remain broadly flat.

This is the key point: we have moved into an investment phase. The strategic logic is clear — AI will require massive upfront spending. The question is not growth, but returns. How much of this capex will translate into durable earnings, and how much will weigh on margins?

For now, earnings momentum is still there, which supports the narrative. But expectations are increasing at the same pace.

As often in such phases, this will create both leaders and disappointments — and therefore opportunities.