The cost of waiting for the new low

US markets continue to reach new all-time highs, which naturally creates the impression that “everything is already too expensive.” Yet history suggests a more nuanced reality. As highlighted by this study from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, investing when markets are making new highs has historically not led to weaker long-term returns. On the contrary, over 3- to 5-year horizons, returns were often slightly above average.
This reflects the nature of equity markets themselves. New highs usually occur during periods when earnings growth, innovation and economic confidence remain strong. Today, the dominant driver remains the massive AI-related CAPEX cycle led by hyperscalers, semiconductors and digital infrastructure investments.
This obviously does not mean risks should be ignored. US valuations remain elevated, market concentration is extreme, and interest rates continue to represent a source of fragility. But history also shows that systematically waiting for corrections before investing has often carried a significant long-term opportunity cost.
At ECP, we continue to believe that valuation discipline remains essential, while also recognizing that bull markets tend to spend a large part of their time… at new highs.