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July 14, 2026

It ain’t over till its over

Brent oil has moved back above USD 85 per barrel after the United States reimposed its blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Only days ago, oil had fallen back towards USD 70 as traffic through the strait resumed and fears of a prolonged supply disruption faded. The renewed escalation is a reminder that normalization was premature.

Around one fifth of global crude oil and LNG normally passes through Hormuz. As long as access remains uncertain, oil prices will continue to react sharply to every military and political development.

A reopening could send crude materially lower again. A sustained blockade or further regional escalation could rapidly push prices towards USD 100.

It ain’t over till it’s over.

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