Afraid of heights

China just posted a $100 billion goods surplus for March, pushing the Q1 total to $275 billion — up from $185 billion last year — and nearly $1.1 trillion over the past 12 months. Tariff front-running plays a role, but it’s not the whole story: China’s trade surplus spans well beyond the U.S. A few thoughts: 1) China is steadily accumulating FX reserves, 2) it’s re-emerging as a global growth engine, powered by exports, 3) the surge is concentrated in high-tech goods like EVs, solar panels, and smartphones, and 4) as U.S. tariffs tighten, some of these flows may increasingly target Europe — forcing Brussels to choose between open markets or protecting local industry.