Alive and kicking

“Rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated” is a quote often attributed to Mark Twain. It could apply to US manufacturing today. Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing new orders — a solid leading indicator for US growth — surprised to the upside and came in at their strongest level since the Fed started tightening in 2022. This doesn’t look like a pure statistical fluke: it is a reminder that the US economy still has meaningful underlying momentum.
At ECP, we take it as a useful reality check. The US cycle is not rolling over just because the narrative says it should — and that is exactly why we keep portfolios balanced, avoid one-way bets, and focus on businesses that can deliver through the cycle.