Category: Daily Instagraph

Consumption in China continues to slow, evidenced by retail sales growing by just 2% in June—falling short of expectations and marking a significant disappointment for the political leadership ahead of this week’s Communist Party conclave. The housing market remains depressed, local governments are heavily indebted, foreign investors are divesting, and the population is aging. As … Continued

In the United States, presidential elections should be decided at the polls, not through an assassination attempt by a young shooter using his father’s rifle from a rooftop. With a triumphant fist shown to the world while leaving the stage, Trump emerged politically stronger from the bloodbath. Betting markets now give him a 65% chance … Continued

Despite slow economic growth and higher interest rates, equity market valuations overall look elevated compared to their historical norms, especially in some corners of the market like the US Mega-tech stocks. Elevated asset prices could signal over-optimism, increasing vulnerability to market corrections if earnings growth disappoints or economic conditions worsen. This has raised concerns among … Continued

The cumulative impact of the aggressive interest rate hikes implemented by the ECB and the Federal Reserve is being felt across the European and US economies, affecting various sectors and continuing to weigh on growth.  The lagged effects of these policy actions are dampening economic growth, as higher borrowing costs weigh on consumer spending, business … Continued

Another important investment theme put forward in our Q3 house-view is moderating inflation. Inflation has indeed moderated significantly, providing relief to consumers and businesses alike, but remains above central bank targets in both the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S., core PCE inflation stands around 2.6%, while the CPI is at 3.4%. The ECB, despite … Continued

Normalization of Interest Rates is another key theme in our Q3 house-view. After a prolonged period of historically low interest rates, central banks worldwide actively raised rates to combat persistent inflation, bringing policy rates closer to their long-term averages and returning interest rates to historical norms. Policymakers continue to strike a delicate balance between taming … Continued

In our Q3 house-view that is just out, one of the key investment themes we highlight for investors going forward is (geo)political risk. After the new Labour PM moving into Downing Street 10 and now the leftist popular front winning the 2nd round of the parliamentary elections, political risks crystallized quicker than expected in both … Continued

Cisco Systems reached its peak as the most valuable company in the world during the dot-com bubble in March 2000, with a market capitalization of $548 billion, equivalent to 5.5% of the US GDP at the time. However, Cisco’s stock price subsequently plummeted by 89% over the following two-and-a-half years and, even 24 years later, … Continued

The U.S. economy is embracing artificial intelligence at an unprecedented speed. According to the BIS Annual Report 2024, over one-third of U.S. households adopted ChatGPT within a year, surpassing the adoption rates of previous technologies such as electricity, the internet, smartphones, and social media. Additionally, more than 75% of white-collar workers in the U.S. are … Continued

The ten largest US companies, predominantly Big Tech, now constitute nearly one-third of the US equities market capitalization—a concentration of market power previously unseen. Big Tech’s dominance is supported by substantial competitive moats, including network effects, data acquisition advantages, advanced technical capabilities, strong balance sheets to fund new ventures, and the ability to acquire and … Continued