Category: Daily Instagraph

The Indian stock market is reaching new highs driven by a combination of economic resilience, Modi’s regional election victories strengthening his foothold and foreign buyers. At the same time, the Chinese stock market approaches a 5 year low as investors take flight from the aftereffects of Beijing’s isolationist Covid-19 policies, turmoil in the real-estate industry … Continued

As we are slowly entering the festive season, I believe my time is better spend reading finance books next to the fireplace instead of the extensive 2024 outlooks provided by eminent sell-side strategists from the major investment houses. If we look at their current S&P 500 forecasts for the end of 2024, they are, as … Continued

What a difference 1 ½ months can make in the bond market. According to the futures market of the Fed fund rates, investors are now discounting no less than 5 cuts of 25 bps by the Fed until January 2025. Mid-October investors were expecting only 2 cuts. The main reasons of this change are softer … Continued

As the US 10 year bond yield dropped from a peak of 5% in the second half of October to 4.3% today, US Bonds had their best month of performance since the 80s. The combination of softer inflation data and more dovish comments from the Fed make it more probable that the central bank is … Continued

Billionaire investor Charlie Munger, the long-time friend and business partner of Warren Buffett, passed away at the age of 99 years. “Berkshire Hathaway could not have been built to its present status without Charlie’s inspiration, wisdom and participation,” Warren Buffett commented. As value manager, I have always been fascinated not only by his achievements as an … Continued

The result of the success of the magnificent 7 stocks we discussed in our Daily yesterday is that it brought the level of US equity market concentration to nearly unprecedented levels. By investing in the overall market via ETFs that reproduce the market-cap weighted index, investors now buy de facto the 10% biggest stocks representing … Continued

Over the last 12 months, the US Treasury has paid 981.3 bn USD of interest charge on the US sovereign debt, the highest nominal amount since WWII. While the absolute figure is scary, we need to take into account that the US economy has grown substantially over the years and is able to absorb this … Continued

Any investor who is currently positioned for higher long-term rates is clearly betting against consensus. According to the latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, two thirds of the interviewed fund managers are now expecting lower long-term rates. This is the highest percentage in 2 decades. To us, the ones shorting long-term bonds currently are either … Continued

While many are enjoying a crispy turkey across the Atlantic today, plates in Germany will probably be pretty empty going forward. The judgement by the German Constitutional Court on the budget tricks made by the government was the last nail on the coffin for hopes of strong economic growth in 2024. Dependence on Russian energy, … Continued

European equities currently trade at 20 times cyclically adjusted earnings, one of our preferred valuation measures as it uses the 10 year average historical earnings and hereby levels out short term earnings swings due to economic swings. This valuation is not only below the 40 year average but also compares to a valuation of 30 … Continued