Category: Daily Instagraph

Economic confidence in the US is currently lower than during the pandemic and almost as low as during the financial crisis in 2008. This could be of relevance to investors as the outcome of US presidential elections matter one year away from the vote. Remember the quote “It’s the economy, stupid.” by James Carville, the … Continued

The European corporate bond market has one fundamental difference to the US. European companies are facing a wall of maturing debt during the next 3 years. The percentage of outstanding high yield bonds with a maturity of up to 3 years is above 40%, about twice the % seen in the US. This means that … Continued

The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged yesterday indicating that the recent rise in longer Term Treasury yields and the overall economic situation hints towards an end of its tightening cycle. Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone falls to a 2 year low in October. European economies are shrinking now with a Eurozone PMI in recession … Continued

The Buffett-indicator is one of the preferred measures used by the famous value investor to evaluate the attractiveness of the overall equity market in terms of valuation. It is simply the market capitalization divided by the GDP. With this ratio below 100, global markets do not look stretched on this measure and do not scare … Continued

While we are all focussed on the Q3 result season, the number one issue that must keep CFOs of leveraged companies awake at night is the refinancing of their debt. Companies cruised through 2023 with little need of refinancing at high rates. This is going to change radically over the next 4 years and put … Continued

As shown in the below graph from BCA Research, we should not fool ourselves into believing that company earnings have been the main driver of the impressive equity bull market we have seen over the last 40 years in the US stock market. The main contributor was multiple expansion, or inflation of asset prices, unrelated … Continued

2023 so far has been a difficult year for the investors in 4 of the most prominent US Banks. However, the overall picture is much more diverse and complex than these 4 graphs would suggest for several reasons. Firstly, both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are heavily exposed to investment banking where we are seeing … Continued

The Greek 10 year government bond yield stands at 4.22% this morning. This is remarkable as it is below the Treasury yield in the US (4.83%). Things appear indeed to improve in Greece: S&P raised last week its long-term issuer ratings to ‘BBB-/A-3’ with a stable outlook, citing a stronger budgetary position. It was the … Continued

Prominent hedge fund manager Bill Ackman covered his short bet on US Treasuries, noting “there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long- term rates.”. “The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests …”. This comes after his hedge fund Pershing Square had disclosed in early August shorting … Continued

One reason why long-term treasury yields have been increasing and bond investors are suffering has nothing to do with the Fed and the view on inflation. There are structural sellers of long-term Treasuries around: China for example has decreased its holdings substantially over the last decade. Reasons are multiple and complex, from de-dollarization, economic to … Continued