Category: Daily Instagraph

The US Purchase Manufacturing Managers’ Index came out yesterday at 46.3, in recession territory and its lowest print since 2009, aside from the early months of the pandemic. New orders declined substantially in the US economy. This is a clear message to those who ignore the recession signals sent from the inverted bond yield curve. … Continued

Mr Market believes that the regional banking crisis has done a good part of the job of the Fed in tightening monetary policy. At least this is what the market implied fed rates are telling us as they have noticeably decreased since the bank run on Silicon Valley Bank. This may prove too optimistic. First … Continued

5.13 trillion USD are currently invested into US money market funds. Over the last 2 weeks alone 238 billion USD have been flowing into these products! This is rational from an investor’s perspective who reduce counterparty risk with individual banks and receive higher yields in the funds than on bank deposits. However it puts the … Continued

Technology stocks are silently regaining their leadership in the stock market. They are being perceived as defensive as they are somewhat shielded from the current worries in the real economy and the banking sector. Nasdaq is up 14% year-to-date versus the broader index S&P 500 is up 4.9%. Valuations do not appear to play a … Continued

Office space vacancy is currently at its highest level in the US since 2005. On the other side of the equation there is 46 bn USD in variable rate office debt that will mature in 2023 and will need to be refinanced ( source: Syzbank ). This all will happen in a context of higher … Continued

12 months forward Price-to-Earnings ratio of European banks has reached a low of 6.5 times, clearly a crisis level as during the Covid-19, the sovereign debt or the 2008 financial crisis. After the trouble with regional banks in the US and the disappearance of Credit Suisse over only one weekend, the stress amongst investors remains … Continued

The recent problems in the banking sector appear to be self-inflicted by the weakest players. So far, so good. However commercial real estate may be the next bigger structural headache to come for investors and banks alike. A toxic combination of higher interest rates, a possible recession and more work from home after the COVID … Continued

After a series of disappointments, the fundamentals and operating environment for the French pharmaceutical group Sanofi are improving. Following positive litigation news in the Zantac class action late last year, yesterday the company could indeed present rather stunning late stage clinical results for its blockbuster drug Dupixent when it is used for the treatment of … Continued

There is in our humble opinion little to comment on the Fed’s action and comments yesterday except their need to satisfy 2 opposing camps: on the one hand the comments and a 25 bps hike need to be dovish enough to reassure the banking system and, on the other hand, hawkish enough to reassure markets … Continued

The latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey illustrates the change in mood amongst professional fund managers. The risk of a systemic credit event is now considered by far the biggest tail risk for financial markets replacing inflation as the top worry. Hawkish central banks, geopolitics, recession risks and stock crash worries are left far behind. … Continued