Category: Daily Instagraph

In his book Irrational Exuberance, Professor Robert Shiller introduced the Shiller Price-to-Earnings ratio, a valuation metric that smooths market earnings over ten years and adjusts them for inflation. The goal is to provide a more normalized view of how expensive the stock market truly is. Today, this measure stands at 38.8 times earnings—its second-highest level … Continued

For a long time, the euro exchange rate was seen as one of the main levers for European equities. That link is breaking down. Bloomberg data show that the historically tight correlation between the EUR/USD and the Euro Stoxx 50 has faded and is now close to zero. This marks a shift. While equities in … Continued

Today’s chart shows the S&P 500 trading at 5.3x price-to-book value — the highest multiple on record, surpassing even the dot-com bubble. While this highlights how stretched US equity valuations appear, two caveats are important: 1) book value is an imperfect yardstick, especially in an economy driven by intangible assets and technological innovation, and 2) … Continued

NVIDIA now holds the largest weight in the S&P 500 ever achieved by a U.S. company. This is what happens when a technology leader combines a genuine edge in innovation with dominant market share in a rapidly expanding AI sector — and consistently delivers on earnings. The trailing P/E of 58 looks steep, particularly for … Continued

The latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey shows a clear portfolio shift going into the second half of the year. Global managers have cut exposure to healthcare, European equities, and REITs, while adding to emerging markets, Japanese stocks — and notably, the U.S. The “great rotation” into Europe, which gained traction earlier this year as … Continued

Germany’s industrial slowdown can no longer be explained by COVID-19 alone. Production has been declining steadily, with energy-intensive sectors hit particularly hard. Output in these areas has failed to rebound and now stands about 20% below 2021 levels. This is more than a cyclical dip — it is accelerating deindustrialisation. Germany’s competitive position as a … Continued

Since Warren Buffett announced his retirement in early May, Berkshire Hathaway’s share price has lagged the S&P 500 by about 26%. Some voices now suggest the legendary investor should return to the helm to steer investment decisions once again.

This chart says it all. If you invest 100 USD in an ETF tracking the S&P 500 today, 15 USD are allocated to just two stocks: Microsoft and NVIDIA. Meanwhile, only 19.7 USD go to all defensive sectors combined — consumer staples, healthcare, energy, and utilities. At European Capital Partners, we call this what it … Continued

This quarter, European markets are delivering the harshest punishment for earnings misses since 2005. On average, Stoxx 600 companies falling short of expectations are underperforming the index by 2.3 percentage points — despite already lowered forecasts going into the season. The reaction reflects fragile sentiment following renewed enthusiasm for European equities earlier this year. Investors … Continued

James Carville, campaign strategist for Bill Clinton in 1992, famously summed up electoral outcomes in these words: “It’s the economy, stupid.”  Friday’s data confirm why the current administration is concerned — the U.S. labour market has slowed sharply. Over the past three months, only 106,000 jobs were created, less than one-third of Q1 levels. The … Continued