Category: Daily Instagraph

Gold in USD is up 28% year-to-date and nearly 95% over the past five years — a remarkable run for an asset that generates no cash flows. A key driver behind this rally: central banks. As the chart below shows, gold has now overtaken the euro as the second-largest component of global official reserves. The … Continued

The underperformance of small caps is not just a U.S. phenomenon. In Europe as well—particularly in Germany—small caps have significantly lagged behind large caps. Over the past five years, the MDAX has gained just under 20%, while the DAX has doubled (+100%) over the same period—one of the widest performance gaps in recent history. Valuations … Continued

Over the past nine weeks, we’ve seen the sharpest drop in the VIX—the S&P 500’s volatility index—in over 50 years, with a decline of 63%. Statistically, this marks the most significant 90-day compression in volatility since 1990. That in itself is striking. But what’s perhaps more interesting is what tends to happen next. Historically, such … Continued

It was a brutal session for some of America’s most attention-grabbing names. Tesla dropped 14%, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) fell 8%, and TrumpCoin slid 9%. The backdrop? A heated clash between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, with both now exchanging personal attacks. What began as a policy disagreement over the “Big Beautiful Bill” … Continued

For over a decade, US equities have left Europe far behind. Since 2010, the S&P 500 is up 616% in USD, while MSCI Europe returned just 221% in EUR. Even over the past 10 years: +235% vs. +75%. Valuations followed the same path. The S&P 500’s P/E rose from 18.3x to 25.5x (+39%), while MSCI … Continued

In Europe, the latest inflation data came in below expectations, driven by a notable drop in services prices. This has cleared the way for the ECB to cut rates this Thursday, a move markets have already started to price in, as shown by the continued decline in the implied ECB rate for June 2025. Whether … Continued

The chart below highlights an unusual convergence: the 5-year CDS spread of the United States is now trading close that of Italy and Greece. CDS spreads are a barometer of sovereign credit risk, and the recent spike in U.S. spreads reflects growing concerns over fiscal sustainability, political gridlock, and mounting debt levels. The fact that … Continued

Welcome back to TACO Territory. As we explained in our last post, “TACO” stands for Trump Always Chickens Out—a pattern that has defined market behavior in 2025. The term coined by the Financial Times captures a cycle investors have now grown too comfortable with: Trump issues threats (tariffs, firings, policy shocks), markets wobble, and then… … Continued

Welcome to Wall Street’s latest phrase: the “Taco Trade.” No, it’s not about lunch—it stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. Last Friday, markets served up a familiar dish. An immediate 50% tariff threat from Trump triggered a sharp drop in the Euro STOXX-600. By the end of Friday, the index had already recovered about half … Continued

The stock market is the opposite of a casino. In a casino, the odds are rigged against you the longer you play. In the stock market, the odds shift in your favor the longer you stay invested. This chart illustrates the point clearly: while 1-year returns for equities can swing wildly—from +53% to -44%—the range … Continued