Category: Daily Instagraph

Over the weekend, we heard talk of “substantial progress” in the Sino-US trade negotiations—but without any concrete details. From what we gather, discussions also touched on rare earths and fentanyl. However, the real driver behind the shift appears to be economic urgency: in April, Chinese exports to the U.S. slumped by 21%, and U.S. port … Continued

An insightful chart from Sparkline Capital was recently shared on LinkedIn by Christian Jasperneite, CIO of M.M.Warburg. It illustrates a clear trend: over the past two decades, international companies with both global production and exports have significantly outperformed purely domestic firms in the equity markets. This pattern is now being challenged by growing protectionism and … Continued

How much debt can a country afford? Japan currently holds the highest net debt-to-GDP ratio among G7 countries at 234%. However, much of this debt is domestically held, primarily by the Bank of Japan, which keeps interest rates at low levels. The US, with a net debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%, faces a debt challenge that … Continued

A quick recap of the last 50 years shows that there were ample subjects for equity investors to worry about and to stay awake at night. From Ukraine, Covid, Eurocrisis, GFC, 9/11 there were constant crisis and events affecting the financial markets. Notwithstanding this, 10,000 USD in the S&P 500 in 1970 are worth 2,991,671 … Continued

Over 60 years, Warren Buffett and the late Charlie Munger turned Berkshire Hathaway into the most valuable non-tech, non-oil company in the world, with a market cap of $1.16 trillion and a staggering 5,502,284% return — nearly double the S&P 500’s annualised performance. Today, Berkshire holds $347.7 billion in cash and owns over 180 businesses … Continued

China remains the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. Over the past five years, its industrial production has surged to 37% above pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, industrial output in the United States remains 2% below its pre-COVID benchmark. We remain skeptical that new tariffs introduced under a potential Trump 2.0 administration will meaningfully reverse this trend or lead … Continued

One reason the Trump 2.0 administration remains highly attuned to current stock market volatility is that approximately 55% of the U.S. population holds equities—either directly or indirectly through insurance policies or pension funds. With around 185 million Americans invested in the market, political decisions that negatively impact asset prices risk alienating a significant portion of … Continued

We can lament the dominance of U.S. financial markets, but the reality is that Europe has never succeeded in building a truly significant equity or bond market. While part of this can be explained by “U.S. exceptionalism,” much of the challenge lies within Europe itself — the absence of a genuine capital markets union, fragmented … Continued

The noise surrounding the first 100 days of the Trump 2.0 presidency is loud, emotional, and often unsettling for investors. However, once we take a bird’s-eye view of the U.S. stock market over the past 100 years, a very different perspective emerges. Equity markets have navigated wars, recessions, political crises, and social upheavals—and yet, the … Continued

Interesting chart shared by Denys Liutyi at Macrobond illustrating the relationship between market volatility and the performance of US equity markets. The volatility regime is represented by the average VIX over the year—often referred to as the “Fear Index.” The takeaway? Elevated market stress is not necessarily a reliable signal to buy. Markets can still … Continued