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The Exor investor journey

By leon

Exor, the Agnelli family holding company, currently trades at around a 50% discount to its NAV. We first invested in the European Value Fund in March 2020 at an average purchase price below EUR 50 per share. While the stock peaked at around EUR 105 in late spring 2024, performance has since disappointed and the … Continued

Middle East War

By Paul Kirch

“The last thing you would want to do is hold money during a war.” — Warren Buffett Current events in the Middle East have many investors looking for the “exit” button. But market history — including the Dow’s performance during WWII — suggests a different path. Please find attached ECP’s full Middle East Analysis and our recommendations … Continued

Hard(ware)ening

By leon

The fear that AI is disrupting the software industry is reaching new highs and markets are reacting in a very binary way. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Software Index, which includes best-in-class names such as Microsoft, Oracle or Adobe, is down around 20%, while the PSE Semiconductor Index, with NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom or Micron, is up … Continued

Winds of change

By leon

We are only five weeks into the new year, yet two market narratives that dominated into late January are already being challenged. First, software stocks have come under pressure as investors reassess both the substitution risk from generative AI and the durability of enterprise AI capex. Second, the debasement trade has cooled, with Bitcoin, silver … Continued

Debasement trade

By leon

Gold and silver are both making new highs at the same time — something we have not seen in recent history. With no major inflation surge and no obvious supply shock, the message is clear: gold is not only an asset; it is also a currency. When confidence in fiat money is questioned, real assets … Continued

Energy and water hungry

By leon

The hyperscalers are extremely energy- and water-hungry. Microsoft consumes around 23,000 GWh of electricity per year — roughly the equivalent of powering Disneyland Paris 48 times for a full year. On the water side, Google uses about 24 million m³ annually, which is like filling 120 million bathtubs — almost everyone in Japan taking a … Continued

The full view

By leon

How does the US equity market look in terms of valuation compared with the peak of the Internet bubble in 2000? As each individual valuation measure has its weaknesses, this table compares 20 different metrics and therefore provides a more robust overall picture. Before jumping to conclusions, it is important to stress again that valuation, … Continued

European equities: not all about defense

By leon

As the year is drawing to a close, time to look at what drove European equities in 2025. On a sector level, banks have been the absolute star this year, with the STOXX 600 Banks price index up 61% year-to-date (as of 16 December), followed by utilities and construction & materials. On the negative side, … Continued

Public Notice of Intention to Terminate Marketing in Greece

By pascal

Public Notice of Intention to Terminate Marketing in Greece 08th December 2025 Published by European Capital Partners (Luxembourg) S.A. acting for • EQUES SA SICAV-RAIF, a société anonyme (S.A.) qualifying as a société d’investissement à capital variable – fonds d’investissement alternatif réservé (SICAV-RAIF), registered with the Luxembourg Business Register under number B273201, hereinafter referred to … Continued