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According to John Auther’s Bloomberg column, the latest numbers on monthly sales of existing homes in the US show they are selling at an annualized pace barely above 3 million units. Barring one bad month after the GFC, this is the worst figure in 27 years. It shows to what extend the US real estate … Continued
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US banks have been a dog this year with the KBW bank index, the benchmark regrouping the 24 most prominent banks, down 26% in an up markets. Share prices have indeed not recovered at all from the US regional banking crisis in Spring. We have 1 week to go until the result season of the … Continued
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The oil price has rallied more than 30% since mid-June with the global benchmark brent topping 95 USD for the first time since November last year. The physical market is tight as refiners struggle to make enough diesel ahead of the seasonal ramp-up in demand. Saudi Arabia and Russia are curtailing exports. The economic outlook … Continued
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When we look at stock market indices, we tend to look at nominal returns. Here markets look stretched with the S&P 500 is up 20% this year, and the Nasdaq is near record highs after gaining a third in 2023. Major indices worldwide have made double-digit gains. However, what has changed over the last 2 years is … Continued
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Remember the Gordon growth model from your finance classes: the current value of any company are its distributed earnings ( say dividends ) divided by the cost of equity minus the growth rate. Applied to the S&P 500 today’s, we assume that earnings/dividends are at best staying constant, growth rate is decreasing in a slowing … Continued
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FOMO Alert! Investors are catching the tech fever as the biggest weekly inflow in 25 years floods into the technology sector. The buzz? Artificial intelligence and the stunning results from NVDIA. With the S&P 500 up 11.1% year-to-date, it’s hard not to feel the fear of missing out. But here’s the reality check: If you … Continued
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Nasdaq 100 is now up 24% since mid-October last year. The remarkable thing about this move is that it is driven exclusively by multiple expansion while earnings for the index are slightly down over the period. In other words, the 12 months forward PER of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is now 27.2 times, 1/3 more … Continued
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Up to the 26th of April, ALL of the performance year-to-date of the S&P 500 was explained by 8 stocks of the index: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. The remaining 492 stocks contributed -0.44%. 2 conclusions: 1/ This is not a broad-based rally and 2/ Despite higher interest rates, it is … Continued
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K+S is the dominant producer of potash destined for the western European market and a European leader in salt production. The company generated an estimated free cash flow of 1 bn EUR in 2022. In comparison to its a market cap of 4.2 bn Eur, K+S looks extremely undervalued. Estimated dividend yield is 7.5%. The … Continued
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The truth is in the pudding: S&P 500 companies have been showing last quarter the weakest earnings performance since Q3 2020, with earnings down 2.8% y-o-y. Also US companies are surprising to the upside in earnings by only 1.6%, the smallest magnitude in 15 years. This is surprising to the extent that the US corporate … Continued