Drôle de guerre ( tarifaire )

Since the introduction of a baseline 10% US tariff in early April, manufacturing PMIs across developed markets have surprised to the upside. As Bloomberg’s John Authers notes, global industry seems — at least on the surface — to be absorbing the shock. Stockpiling may explain part of the resilience, but inflation has remained contained, and the Fed is in no rush to move.

So far, so not too painful — but is the world growing complacent? The 10% tariff is already the biggest new trade barrier since WWII, yet markets are treating it as a tolerable “new normal.” Revenue is pouring into US coffers, and corporate margins — especially in the US — are starting to feel the strain.

The risk: while everyone watches Iran, the real economic conflict may be silently boiling beneath the surface. At ECP, we remain focused on resilient businesses with strong earnings power — able to navigate this “drôle de guerre” of deglobalization and margin compression.