Easter not Halloween

The US Purchase Manufacturing Managers’ Index came out yesterday at 46.3, in recession territory and its lowest print since 2009, aside from the early months of the pandemic. New orders declined substantially in the US economy. This is a clear message to those who ignore the recession signals sent from the inverted bond yield curve. Indeed, according to Bianco Research, in 75% of the instances where the PMI was below 50 over the last 60 years, the US economy was in or about to enter into a recession. While we are approaching Easter and not Halloween, investors should still be at least a little scared about this data.