Exceptional vintage

The S&P 500 is now up 89.32% since 31 December 2022. According to Goldman Sachs, this puts the US equity market on track for one of the strongest rolling four-year return periods of the last 100 years.

Mega-cap technology has probably been the main driver of this exceptional performance. This also means that the market has become increasingly concentrated in a small number of names.

The comparison with Europe is striking. Over the same period, European equities, as measured by the STOXX 600, are up “only” 50.67%.

Unless the second half of 2026 brings a material market correction, this US four-year vintage is set to become truly exceptional.