Geopolitical risk

Overnight, Israel launched an attack on Iran, targeting nuclear and military infrastructure. It's a stark reminder that geopolitical risk never truly disappears — it merely fades in and out of the market's attention.

It also highlights the limits of American influence in global affairs. As recently as April, Trump declared: “Under my leadership, Iran knew not to play with fire.” Yet tensions have clearly escalated.

Markets responded swiftly: Brent crude jumped over 13%, gold rose, and equity markets in Asia sold off. European equity futures are down around 1.7% this morning.

At ECP, we don’t try to time geopolitical events. We remain focused on fundamentals and invest in undervalued, high-quality businesses. That said, when shocks of this magnitude hit, we take note. In our European Value Fund, for instance, TotalEnergies and Subsea 7 are among the energy holdings we believe are well positioned.