Geopolitical supply risks

Equity markets sold off globally on Friday, shaken by renewed trade tensions between the United States and China. A new episode of “Truth Social diplomacy” from President Trump sent shockwaves through financial markets — with the Nasdaq down 3.5% and crypto assets tumbling amid fears of a renewed trade war.

The trigger came as China announced new export restrictions on rare earths — a segment it dominates with almost 70% of global production — reminding markets how dependent the world remains on a single supplier for key inputs used in batteries, chips, and advanced electronics.

Over the weekend, Washington appeared to row back diplomatically, signalling that talks with Beijing remain possible before the November 1 deadline. Equity futures are up this morning, but investors should brace for more volatility as geopolitics once again moves to the forefront of market sentiment.

At ECP, we view this as a reminder that geopolitical supply risks — particularly around strategic materials — will remain a key driver of inflation, industrial policy, and capital allocation in the years ahead.