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Gimme five

Jan 24, 2024

We have been arguing earlier this year in our house view that expectations going into 2024 for rate cuts were high. We believed there was a divergence between central banks and markets expectation over the number and pace of rate cuts in 2024. In the meantime, market have started to adjust. The yield on the US 5 year Treasury Note has increased from 3.8% to 4.0% and the implied number of quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed has decreased from 6.5 to almost 5. We think this is still a high number for 2024 but investors start to adjust to reality.

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