By leon
Amid the justified excitement around AI and the power of innovation, it is worth remembering that technological progress inevitably brings disruption at the company level. Today’s perceived leaders are not guaranteed to remain tomorrow’s winners. History offers clear reminders. Railway companies once dominated markets before fading. More recently, Kodak and Polaroid—both pioneers in their fields—failed … Continued
By leon
Markets cheered yesterday’s temporary ceasefire with Iran and the announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the situation remains fragile, particularly given ongoing tensions in Lebanon. More importantly, normalization of trade flows will not happen overnight. According to JP Morgan, it may take up to three months for tanker traffic to return to normal … Continued
By leon
Oil is moving back toward $90 following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. Brent is down around 13%, unwinding much of the geopolitical risk premium. Markets are reacting quickly: Nikkei +5% this morning, European equity futures +5.2%, and S&P 500 futures +2.4%. US 10-year yields are down 5bps to 4.24%, … Continued
By pascal
We’re happy to support Goldbridge Investment Club. For us at European Capital Partners, this is not just about sponsoring a club. It’s about backing people early — giving young talent the right environment to develop. As part of this partnership, we’ll stay close as a partner and advisor, sharing our perspective where helpful and supporting … Continued
By pascal
PUBLIC NOTICE OF INTENTION TO TERMINATE MARKETING IN FRANCE – EDR WSG DI – SCA SICAV-RAIF – ACTI-HALL & SUNSEEKER 01st April 2026 Published by European Capital Partners (Luxembourg) S.A. acting for EDR WSG DI – SCA SICAV-RAIF, a société en commandite par actions, société d’investissement à capital variable – Fonds d’investissement … Continued
By leon
Today’s chart shows that markets still see the outcome of the US-Iran conflict as no better than a toss-up. Polymarket, an online prediction market, is pricing only around a 50% chance of a ceasefire by the end of April, which tells us that investors are not yet convinced that a clear off-ramp has been found. … Continued
By leon
As shown in our daily a couple of days ago, oil futures remain in backwardation, with the curve clearly sloping downward and December delivery still trading below the current spot price. This continues to suggest that forward markets are not really believing in a long lasting oil shock. Today’s chart adds an important confirmation to … Continued
By leon
While most investor attention is currently focused on equity markets and commodities, we should not forget that there has also been action on the bond side, with interest rates gradually moving upwards globally over the past five years ( here 10 year government yields for Germany and US ). This may be seen as a … Continued
By leon
The escalation around Iran is pushing geopolitical risk back to the forefront. Markets have responded with weaker equities, higher bond yields and continued oil volatility. Asian equities fell 3.3%, including declines of 3.4% in Japan and 5.9% in Korea, while US Treasury yields rose to 3.94% on the 2-year and 4.41% on the 10-year. European … Continued
By leon
One of the more important messages from recent central-bank communication is that policymakers are becoming more hawkish again in response to the inflation risks linked to the war in Iran. As Bloomberg reports, the ECB is now openly discussing the possibility of rate hikes should higher energy prices start to feed into second-round effects and … Continued