It’s the economy, stupid !

James Carville, campaign strategist for Bill Clinton in 1992, famously summed up electoral outcomes in these words: “It’s the economy, stupid.”  Friday’s data confirm why the current administration is concerned — the U.S. labour market has slowed sharply. Over the past three months, only 106,000 jobs were created, less than one-third of Q1 levels.

The political reaction was immediate. The president fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Markets are now pricing this in more seriously: two-year Treasury yields fell 26 bps to 3.7% on the release and the US dollar is weakening.

One question remains largely unspoken: to what extent is the cooling economy linked to recent tariff policies? Equity markets, for now, have shifted into a risk-off mode until there is more clarity. At ECP, we maintain our disciplined approach, focused on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term noise.