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June 2, 2026

Like US govies

The chart is quite symbolic: Nvidia’s 5-year CDS now trades at a level comparable to, and even slightly below, that of the United States.
A CDS measures the cost of insuring against a credit default. Of course, one should not compare too directly a company, even an exceptional one, with a sovereign state that issues its own currency. CDS markets do not have the same depth, liquidity or technical dynamics.
Still, the signal is interesting. Nvidia is now perceived by the market as a company with extremely high credit quality: a strong balance sheet, massive cash-flow generation, a dominant position in AI infrastructure and exceptional profitability. At the same time, the United States remains the global benchmark, but its fiscal trajectory, rising public debt and political tensions around federal finances are gradually weighing on the perception of sovereign risk.
For investors, the message is twofold: quality matters more than ever, but one should also remain attentive when markets start treating certain companies almost like sovereign issuers.

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