One for the weekend

Based on data going back 100 years, the S&P 500 has NEVER bottomed in the period before a recession hit. Unfortunately, we can think of many arguments supporting a scenario of a soft or hard recession hitting the US economy in the mid-term: higher interest rates due to tight monetary policy with risk of policy errors, inverted yield curve, deposit flights from regional banks, falling commercial real estate prices, debt ceiling, slowing leading indicators for the economy, … . In such an environment, we stay defensive and selective in our investments at ECP.