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Past the peak

Apr 13, 2023

Yesterday’s March US CPI report came in cooler than expected with headline CPI rising by just 0.1% mainly driven by some moderation in food and energy prices. Core CPI remains however uncomfortably high. Today’s graph from Arbion compares the inflation path we are currently seeing in the US with past inflationary periods. 2 conclusions: 1/ The pattern we are seeing today is consistent with past and 2/ it looks like we are past peak inflation. This does not necessarily mean that the Fed is done hiking and rates may increase at the next Fed meeting May 3rd. However, as things currently stand, we believe we are close to peak interest rates.

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