Dec 04, 2023
What a difference 1 ½ months can make in the bond market. According to the futures market of the Fed fund rates, investors are now discounting no less than 5 cuts of 25 bps by the Fed until January 2025. Mid-October investors were expecting only 2 cuts. The main reasons of this change are softer inflation data and weaker consumer sentiment. At ECP, we continue to believe that central banks arrive to the end of their rate hike cycle. Nevertheless, we also believe that this pivot from bond investors is very fast and may lead to disappoints if rates would stay higher for longer due to stronger economic data. Lower rates yes but we do not expect 5 cuts in a year yet.