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The return of the return of inflation ?

Jan 11, 2024

Our base scenario at ECP remains that central banks are done raising interest rates and have been successful in the fight of inflation. However, history has shown that in some occasions, inflation comes back with a vengeance after an initial fall like shown below for the US. What could provoke a return of inflation this time ? We can think for example of higher freight rates due to the geopolitical situation or higher energy prices. While such a scenario appear farfetched today, investors should be careful not to fall asleep at the wheel.

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