The underdog

This chart tells a simple but striking story: since the end of 2019, Germany has barely grown. Despite massive fiscal support and historic stimulus efforts during the pandemic, Germany’s GDP is up just 0.3%—while the U.S. economy has expanded over 12%. Even the Eurozone average has left Germany behind, and Italy and Spain have quietly outpaced Europe’s largest economy. The reasons are well known: underinvestment, overregulation, demographic decline, energy policy missteps, and geopolitical vulnerability. But the magnitude of Germany’s underperformance is now undeniable. If there’s a silver lining, it’s this: the recovery gap presents an opportunity—if Germany can finally pivot and reinvest in its industrial and economic competitiveness.