The US (surp)rise
Jun 30, 2023
Over the last weeks we have seen a whole series of economic data coming out of the US that has been surprising economists positively. This week we had again strong US housing, consumer and durable goods data. At the same time economic surprises lack in Europe. Result: the current divergence between the surprise indices of the Eurozone and US is the third largest in 20 years. The real surprise is that the USD does not strengthen on this and we conclude that investors are so focussed on the next steps of the central banks that they forget how important economic growth is for USD. It may be time to revisit the USD.