Trade uncertainty

The US Supreme Court has effectively capsized the current tariff setup. Over the weekend, the Trump administration moved quickly and announced a 15% global levy under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows tariffs to be imposed for up to 150 days without congressional approval.

What becomes clear: even a “flat” tariff reshuffles the burden across US trade partners. Brazil and China look like relative winners, while the UK and the EU stand out as clear losers.

But nothing is settled. The unilateral trade accords negotiated with the US are now being questioned. Washington says it intends to stand by them, yet the EU is already considering freezing ratification of the US trade deal.

For markets, the only certainty right now is more trade uncertainty — and that’s not a mix investors typically reward. European and US equity futures are down this morning.