War premium

Oil extended its rally for the third consecutive day as markets weighed the escalating supply risks in the Middle East. Israel is anticipated to retaliate against Iran following Tehran’s recent missile offensive. Brent crude is nearing $75 a barrel, marking the longest streak of daily gains since August. A large-scale Israeli strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure could disrupt up to 1.5 million barrels per day of supply, as estimated by Citigroup Inc. Despite these risks, the global supply outlook remains nuanced. OPEC+ is preparing to bring some of its previously halted production back online. In the U.S., crude inventories unexpectedly climbed by 3.9 million barrels last week, adding a layer of complexity to the supply-demand narrative. At ECP, where geopolitical risks form a cornerstone of our investment strategy, we maintain a long position in energy. TotalEnergies, for instance, is a key component of our portfolio-