Category: Daily Instagraph

Despite the fiscal restraint narrative championed by Elon Musk’s “Doge” initiative, the U.S. is currently experiencing its largest budget deficit outside of a recession. In fiscal year 2024, the deficit reached $1.9 trillion, marking the third-largest in U.S. history, trailing only the pandemic-era shortfalls . This fiscal backdrop is set against the Trump 2.0 administration’s … Continued

Amid the tariff storm unleashed by the Trump 2.0 administration, investors have begun to question the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism. Despite a recent rebound, both the U.S. equity market and the Magnificent Seven have significantly underperformed global markets since the start of the year. What has gone largely unnoticed, however, is the continued neglect of … Continued

The number of publicly listed companies in the U.S. has halved over the past 25 years—a trend driven by a decline in IPO activity and a rise in M&A and private takeovers. With fewer listed companies available, more investor capital is competing for a shrinking pool of opportunities. This dynamic could contribute to structurally higher … Continued

While U.S.-China tariff rhetoric has softened for now, deeper concerns persist. The U.S. dollar has strengthened in recent weeks, and interest rates are trending higher—despite growing doubts about fiscal sustainability and the erosion of U.S. economic credibility. Are bond markets looking past the tariff noise, pricing in the risk of new tax cuts and the … Continued

Over the weekend, we heard talk of “substantial progress” in the Sino-US trade negotiations—but without any concrete details. From what we gather, discussions also touched on rare earths and fentanyl. However, the real driver behind the shift appears to be economic urgency: in April, Chinese exports to the U.S. slumped by 21%, and U.S. port … Continued

An insightful chart from Sparkline Capital was recently shared on LinkedIn by Christian Jasperneite, CIO of M.M.Warburg. It illustrates a clear trend: over the past two decades, international companies with both global production and exports have significantly outperformed purely domestic firms in the equity markets. This pattern is now being challenged by growing protectionism and … Continued

How much debt can a country afford? Japan currently holds the highest net debt-to-GDP ratio among G7 countries at 234%. However, much of this debt is domestically held, primarily by the Bank of Japan, which keeps interest rates at low levels. The US, with a net debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%, faces a debt challenge that … Continued

A quick recap of the last 50 years shows that there were ample subjects for equity investors to worry about and to stay awake at night. From Ukraine, Covid, Eurocrisis, GFC, 9/11 there were constant crisis and events affecting the financial markets. Notwithstanding this, 10,000 USD in the S&P 500 in 1970 are worth 2,991,671 … Continued

Over 60 years, Warren Buffett and the late Charlie Munger turned Berkshire Hathaway into the most valuable non-tech, non-oil company in the world, with a market cap of $1.16 trillion and a staggering 5,502,284% return — nearly double the S&P 500’s annualised performance. Today, Berkshire holds $347.7 billion in cash and owns over 180 businesses … Continued

China remains the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. Over the past five years, its industrial production has surged to 37% above pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, industrial output in the United States remains 2% below its pre-COVID benchmark. We remain skeptical that new tariffs introduced under a potential Trump 2.0 administration will meaningfully reverse this trend or lead … Continued