Category: DAILY INSTAGRAPH

Economist Milton Friedman, the father of monetarism, famously emphasized that the stock market and the broader economy do not always move in sync. One of his notable quotes captures this distinction perfectly: “The stock market is not the economy. The economy is not the stock market.” This observation is clearly reflected when analysing the performance … Continued

He finally did it: President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on merchandise imports from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% on Chinese imports. In a global economy driven by free trade, weaponizing tariffs for political gain leaves only losers in its wake. For the U.S., expect inflation, weakening consumer demand, and a potentially more … Continued

Equity research has experienced significant downsizing, with the number of analysts at major global banks shrinking by more than a third over the past decade, particularly in Europe and Asia. Pay for analysts has stagnated, and global spending on research has dropped by 50% since 2018, largely due to regulatory changes like MiFID II with … Continued

2024 has witnessed the narrowest market in U.S. equities since the Tech Bubble. Over the past 50 years, an average of 48% of stocks outperformed the S&P 500, but in the last two years, this figure has dropped below 30%, driven primarily by the dominance of U.S. Big Tech. This is not just a challenge … Continued

Yesterday, NVIDIA experienced the largest single-day drop in stock market history, losing $590 billion in market capitalization as its stock plunged 17%. The scale of the decline was remarkable, with the wealth destruction exceeding Oracle’s entire market cap—equivalent to the combined value of LVMH and Unilever disappearing in Europe. At ECP, we draw several key … Continued

Nasdaq futures dropped nearly 2% this morning as alarm grows over China’s accelerating progress in AI development, eroding the once-dominant lead held by US tech giants. Despite the CHIPS Act, which restricts exports of advanced AI chips to China, Chinese firms have made remarkable strides. Alibaba-owned QwQ and Deepseek, a spin-off from a Chinese hedge … Continued

The only way to truly grow your capital in liquid assets over the long term is through investing in stocks. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual nominal return of 10%—or 6.9% when adjusted for inflation. Thanks to the power of compounding, a long-term investor would have doubled his/her capital every 7.2 … Continued

According to the latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, European equities are making a comeback, with the second-largest monthly rotation into EU stocks in the past 25 years. This shift follows 17 years of underperformance by Eurozone equities relative to their U.S. counterparts. As we’ve highlighted on numerous occasions, Europe faces significant headwinds, including … Continued

The latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey reveals that the world’s largest portfolio managers are heavily invested, while maintaining cash levels near their lowest in 40 years. This widespread optimism, largely driven by FOMO (fear of missing out), leaves little room for error, particularly in a context where Chinese and European economies remain sluggish, interest … Continued

While global attention focuses on Donald Trump’s renewed presidency, Europe faces persistent political and financial challenges. France’s 10-year government bond yield remains elevated at 3.37%, even surpassing Greece’s 3.34%, reflecting investor unease. Despite François Bayrou surviving a no-confidence vote, President Macron’s administration struggles to advance overdue reforms, leaving France politically stagnant. Major European economies face … Continued