Category: Daily Instagraph

Equity markets — or “Mr. Market”, as value investors like to call it — feel distinctly bi-polar at the moment. We are seeing outsized moves on headlines, narrative shifts, or even small changes in guidance. Yesterday we mentioned how advertising groups such as Publicis are being punished on the “AI will make them irrelevant” story. … Continued

Over the last 12 months, European media and advertising stocks have materially underperformed the broader European equity market. Names such as Publicis and WPP have been particularly avoided, weighed down by two dominant narratives: potential substitution from generative AI, and increasingly “walled” access to data as platforms like Google and Meta tighten control. Yesterday, Publicis … Continued

“Rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated” is a quote often attributed to Mark Twain. It could apply to US manufacturing today. Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing new orders — a solid leading indicator for US growth — surprised to the upside and came in at their strongest level since the Fed started tightening in 2022. This … Continued

One thing we’ve learned over the years as investors is that markets always come with a tidy explanation after the shift has already happened. The sharp pullback in gold and silver over the last couple of days is a good example: was it speculation around Kevin Warsh as a potential next Federal Reserve Chair, option … Continued

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of speaking about value investing at a conference organized by Investas (the Luxembourg association of private investors – www.investas.lu ), together with the Goldbridge Investment Club — Luxembourg’s fully student-driven investment club ( www.goldbridge.lu ). One slide captured the core idea particularly well: value investing is, at heart, a fundamental … Continued

The Fed left rates unchanged yesterday — and Powell’s message was essentially: stay the course. He acknowledged that the growth outlook has improved since the last meeting, which should support labor demand over time. But he also kept the door open on the labor market narrative, a clear sign the Fed wants maximum flexibility for … Continued

Sell-side strategists increasingly argue that higher US equity valuations are justified by a less volatile economy. The chart makes the point clearly: the share of months spent in recession fell from 19% (pre-1992) to 8% (post-1992). In that framework, lower macro volatility warrants a higher multiple. At European Capital Partners , we remain somewhat sceptical. … Continued

A quote often attributed to Isaac Newton says: “I can calculate the motion of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Newton invested early in the South Sea Company and made good money — then re-entered as speculation turned into mania and lost heavily. It’s a useful reminder: markets are a humbling machine. … Continued

Interesting chart from UBS (shared by Ben Carlson, Ritholtz Wealth Management). At the start of the 20th century, the US stock market represented 14.5% of global equity markets. Today, it represents 60.5%. The UK was the largest market in 1899 at roughly a quarter of the global total; it has now shrunk to 3.7%. Belgium … Continued

Was it a negotiation tactic? Another TACO ( Trump Always Chickens Out ) move? Markets certainly took President Trump’s latest comments that way and looked relieved. The chart is a useful reminder of the broader backdrop: Europe holds close to $3.6 trillion of US Treasuries — nearly 40% of all foreign-held Treasuries. This matters, but … Continued