Category: Daily Instagraph

Warren Buffett announced that he is “going quiet,” marking the end of an era for one of the business world’s most respected voices as he will no longer write his famous annual letters or speak at the company’s meetings. This marks another step in Buffett’s gradual handover to his longtime deputy, Greg Abel, who inherits … Continued

For months, investors have debated the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policy on global trade and, ultimately, on world growth. Some even predicted the end of globalisation. So far, the data tell a more nuanced story: the volume of world merchandise trade has continued its upward trend. It is too early to conclude that … Continued

It’s Halloween, so a small memento mori: our investment horizon is certainly not the one shown on century-spanning charts—by then we’ll highly likely be gone. Still, history is clear: equities have been the most reliable long-term hedge against inflation, and starting valuations matter—buying when dividend yields are high or when P/E and CAPE are low … Continued

As Halloween approaches, here’s a scary chart for the German economy. With baby boomers retiring, Germany is set to lose roughly one in ten workers over the next decade (UN WPP 2024 via Dr. Stefan Legge, University of St. Gallen). The working-age population is shrinking while the 65+ cohort swells—one structural reason growth has faded … Continued

One of our preferred valuation measures at ECP is the CAPE – the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which normalises corporate earnings over 10 years and adjusts them for inflation. Once again, it shows that US equities are trading at historically elevated levels, comparable only to the extremes reached at the peak of the Internet bubble. … Continued

It now takes 61 barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold, one of the highest ratios in history. This extreme level reflects both the strength of gold and the weakness of oil prices. Over the last 40 years, such a peak was only reached once, during the Covid pandemic in 2020, when oil … Continued

As we approach November 2025, valuations in the US stock market remain uncomfortably high relative to their own history. No matter how you look at it—forward price-to-earnings, cyclically adjusted P/E, or price-to-book—the conclusion is the same. Even when excluding the ten largest stocks in the S&P 500, valuations remain close to the levels seen during … Continued

The United States now spends more on interest payments for its debt than on national defense. We find this rather worrying in the current geopolitical environment. Even more concerning, the Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2049, interest expenses will nearly double the defense budget. This says a lot about the future standing of the … Continued

In recent weeks, several technical indicators have signalled that the seemingly unstoppable uptrend in gold and silver required a pause. For instance, as the following chart shows, last week the weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) for silver reached 86, one of the highest values ever recorded. Even during the previous major bull market in precious … Continued

Gold had its worst session in 12 years, falling more than 5% yesterday. We believe this correction was mainly technical, as some investors took profits after a stellar year for the yellow metal. In USD terms, gold remains up more than 50% year-to-date. The “debasement trade” remains indeed firmly in place: with unsustainable debt levels … Continued