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Category: Daily Instagraph

Business as usual

By leon

Trump’s second presidency marks its first year. For investors, the past months have been anything but quiet: tariff announcements, renewed trade tensions, and repeated questions around central-bank independence have translated into headline risk and higher volatility. We start 2026 with another round of “gunboat diplomacy”, where global trade is increasingly used as a negotiating tool. … Continued

The Price of Inequality

By leon

This chart from the Financial Times illustrates how US consumption has become increasingly concentrated. The top 10% of earners now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, while the bottom 80% has steadily lost share over the past three decades. From a macro and investor perspective, this matters: when demand is driven by a … Continued

The AI crocodile

By leon

Today’s chart comes from Octavian Adrian Tănase. Historically, productivity in the US financial sector moved broadly in line with labour demand: when margins were under pressure in a zero-rate world, efficiency was the name of the game, and headcount tended to follow activity. Since 2022, with the return of interest rates, that relationship has broken … Continued

The AI force

By leon

AI is no longer just a technology trend—it is now visible in the macro data. In the US, AI-related investment already represents around 1% of GDP if you only count data centres and IT manufacturing. If you widen the lens to include broader IT equipment and software, the number moves closer to 5% of GDP. … Continued

A bird’s view

By leon

Interesting chart from Asserta Asset Management: over the past three years, the strong performance of global equity markets has been driven mainly by Communication Services and Information Technology—more specifically by companies linked to the AI revolution. AI is clearly enhancing the earning power of many businesses, and AI infrastructure capex should continue to grow, creating … Continued

125 years and going

By leon

2025 goes down as a fairly average year in terms of returns for the S&P 500 (in USD): despite all the drama and volatility during the year, the index still finished up 16.4%. That is actually very consistent with the long-term distribution of outcomes. Over 1900–2025, the S&P 500 delivered positive returns in about 68% … Continued

Meanwhile in the Far East

By leon

A meaningful shift is unfolding in the Far East—at least in the bond market. For the first time in two decades, Japanese 10-year government bond yields are higher than Chinese equivalents. Hold on a second: is this the same Japan whose economy has endured a decade-long “ice age” of deflation and subdued growth? Is this … Continued

A comfortable position

By leon

Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of listed equities for 12 consecutive quarters — the longest selling streak in the company’s history. While Warren Buffett stepped down as CEO on 31 December 2025 and Greg Abel took over at the start of 2026, Buffett remains Chairman and still controls just under 30% of Berkshire’s … Continued

Daily Instagraph: The new world order

By leon

First, let me wish you a happy New Year, with good health and much success in all your endeavours. The year is hardly five days old and geopolitics is back at the center of market attention. From an investor perspective, it is worth remembering one simple fact: Venezuela sits on the world’s largest proven crude … Continued

Final thoughts for 2025

By leon

Before we pause our Daily Instagraphs for the festive season, today’s Daily Instagraph is a little different. It features again an excerpt from Warren Buffett’s message to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders dated 10 November 2025 (“To My Fellow Shareholders”). In that note, Buffett wrote that he is “going quiet,” i.e., stepping back from writing Berkshire’s annual … Continued