Category: Daily Instagraph

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness is the latest high-profile victim in the hedge fund world. After spectacular gains, the fund suffered a severe drawdown as leverage, falling prices and deteriorating liquidity combined. In a recent article, Adrian Reid reviewed 62 hedge fund failures between 2005 and 2026. Only 21% were primarily caused by fraud or mismarking. … Continued

The forced deleveraging at Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund is a stark reminder that identifying the right secular trend is not enough to guarantee investment success. A crowded trade, excessive leverage and renewed concerns about interest rates can quickly turn conviction into margin calls. In July, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 21%—its worst month since the … Continued

Despite the renewed hostilities with Iran and the disruption to oil supplies, Brent remains below its 2026 high reached in April. Today’s graph helps explain why: weaker demand has absorbed roughly one quarter of the supply shock. The coordinated release of strategic reserves has also cushioned the impact. However, this buffer is becoming thinner: the … Continued

Joe Little, Global Chief Strategist at HSBC Asset Management, highlights an important contrast within today’s markets: while some segments display increasingly speculative characteristics, others remain largely neglected. These markets combine limited investor interest, relatively modest valuations and greater potential sensitivity to future interest-rate cuts. Because they are less crowded—and carry fewer excessive expectations—they may also … Continued

The deterioration in the Middle East is becoming increasingly difficult for markets to ignore. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen back to almost zero, compared with roughly 80 daily crossings before the conflict. Hopes for a rapid normalization have also disappeared: prediction markets now assign virtually no chance to traffic returning to … Continued

The role of European equities in global trading has declined dramatically. According to Société Générale, their share of global trading volumes has fallen from nearly 25% in the early 2000s to around 3% today. Their share of global market capitalisation has also dropped, from close to 30% to approximately 13%. This goes beyond the relative … Continued

Morgan Stanley now expects MSCI Europe earnings per share to grow by 16.9% in 2026, following a sharp series of upgrades in recent months. Even excluding the energy sector, expected growth remains a solid 13.4%. This matters because European equities continue to trade at a meaningful valuation discount to the US market. Europe is also … Continued

As Mike Bell of RBC BlueBay Asset Management points out, Chinese-owned car brands are now the second-largest group in the UK market by new registrations year to date. The UK is a particularly useful market to monitor. It has no mainstream domestically owned car manufacturer, limiting patriotic purchasing bias, and—unlike the European Union—does not impose … Continued

Brent oil has moved back above USD 85 per barrel after the United States reimposed its blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Only days ago, oil had fallen back towards USD 70 as traffic through the strait resumed and fears of a prolonged supply disruption faded. The renewed escalation is a reminder … Continued

German interest rates continue to move higher, with the 30-year government bond yield now around 3.6%, close to its highest level in more than a decade. The contrast with the previous cycle is striking. In 2020, long-term German yields briefly traded below zero. Today, governments, companies and households must once again pay a meaningful price … Continued