Category: Daily Instagraph

For over a decade, US equities have left Europe far behind. Since 2010, the S&P 500 is up 616% in USD, while MSCI Europe returned just 221% in EUR. Even over the past 10 years: +235% vs. +75%. Valuations followed the same path. The S&P 500’s P/E rose from 18.3x to 25.5x (+39%), while MSCI … Continued

In Europe, the latest inflation data came in below expectations, driven by a notable drop in services prices. This has cleared the way for the ECB to cut rates this Thursday, a move markets have already started to price in, as shown by the continued decline in the implied ECB rate for June 2025. Whether … Continued

The chart below highlights an unusual convergence: the 5-year CDS spread of the United States is now trading close that of Italy and Greece. CDS spreads are a barometer of sovereign credit risk, and the recent spike in U.S. spreads reflects growing concerns over fiscal sustainability, political gridlock, and mounting debt levels. The fact that … Continued

Welcome back to TACO Territory. As we explained in our last post, “TACO” stands for Trump Always Chickens Out—a pattern that has defined market behavior in 2025. The term coined by the Financial Times captures a cycle investors have now grown too comfortable with: Trump issues threats (tariffs, firings, policy shocks), markets wobble, and then… … Continued

Welcome to Wall Street’s latest phrase: the “Taco Trade.” No, it’s not about lunch—it stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. Last Friday, markets served up a familiar dish. An immediate 50% tariff threat from Trump triggered a sharp drop in the Euro STOXX-600. By the end of Friday, the index had already recovered about half … Continued

The stock market is the opposite of a casino. In a casino, the odds are rigged against you the longer you play. In the stock market, the odds shift in your favor the longer you stay invested. This chart illustrates the point clearly: while 1-year returns for equities can swing wildly—from +53% to -44%—the range … Continued

This chart tells a simple but striking story: since the end of 2019, Germany has barely grown. Despite massive fiscal support and historic stimulus efforts during the pandemic, Germany’s GDP is up just 0.3%—while the U.S. economy has expanded over 12%. Even the Eurozone average has left Germany behind, and Italy and Spain have quietly … Continued

Trump’s much-touted “one big, beautiful bill” — the 2026 U.S. House Reconciliation Bill — reveals a striking imbalance in the distribution of tax cuts. According to ITEP,  the wealthiest 20% of Americans are set to receive 67% of the total benefits, while the bottom 60% will share just 17%. This skewed allocation highlights how fiscal … Continued

Tepid demand at the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction, the loss of Moody’s top credit rating, 30-year bond yields surpassing 5.1%, and ongoing political turmoil are casting fresh doubts on U.S. exceptionalism and weighing on investor sentiment toward U.S. equities. In contrast, European equities are beginning to stand out. Trading at a record valuation discount to … Continued

For many investors, duration risk remains an abstract concept—until it impacts their portfolios. Consider a real-life example: if you had invested five years ago in a U.S. Treasury bond maturing in 2050 with a 1.25% coupon, you would have seen its value cut in half. Why? Because yields on 30-year U.S. government bonds have risen … Continued