Category: Daily Instagraph

At the end of Q3 2026, the S&P 500 was trading close to its all-time high. Yet beneath the surface, the picture was very different. 58% of its constituents were more than 20% below their individual peaks, and 40% had fallen by over 30%. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down 1.8% year-to-date, compared with … Continued

Are we in a stock market bubble? Perhaps an earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. Since October 2022, the S&P 500 has gained more than 110%. Interestingly, most of this performance has come from earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Earnings have done the heavy lifting. But there is a catch. The S&P 500 has … Continued

Two Americas, two very different realities. Wall Street is celebrating new highs, while Main Street is losing confidence. The S&P 500 continues to climb, even as US consumer confidence falls to new lows. The K-shaped economy is becoming increasingly visible. Asset owners benefit from rising equity markets, while households without significant financial assets struggle with … Continued

Great chart from André Huwiler : 35 cents of every dollar invested in the S&P 500 go into just seven companies. The smallest 401 companies together account for only 23.5%. An extraordinary concentration, but also an interesting consequence of the massive shift towards passive investing. The more these companies outperform, the larger their weight in … Continued

The S&P 500 is experiencing its largest outperformance against its equally weighted counterpart since the internet bubble. Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the S&P 500 has gained 118%, compared to 67% for the equally weighted index. A gap of more than 50 percentage points. During the internet bubble, the difference reached 68 … Continued

Tavi Costa’s chart makes an interesting point: after almost 15 years of relentless US outperformance, the trend may finally be starting to change. That does not mean US tech is finished. But the next phase of AI investment should broaden well beyond semiconductors and software. It also requires power, grids, data centres, copper and physical … Continued

We recently looked at the asymmetry in US Treasuries. Maxence Brands, portfolio management intern at ECP, run the same exercise across Europe. The result tells a more nuanced story. The chart shows the 12-month return of 10-year government bonds in three scenarios: yields rising by 1%, unchanged, or falling by 1%. In every market, a … Continued

France is increasingly becoming a weak link in the euro area. The chart tells the story: rising borrowing costs, debt approaching 120% of GDP, almost no growth and inflation moving higher again. At the same time, political fragmentation has severely reduced the government’s ability to implement the structural reforms needed to change the trajectory. Bloomberg … Continued

One more on bonds before the weekend — a rare sequence for me as an equity investor. To follow up on the bond charts shared in the Daily this week, today’s graph looks at the sensitivity of different U.S. fixed-income segments to changes in interest rates. The message is increasingly interesting. At current yields, bonds … Continued

The bond market is getting interesting again. After five painful years, duration starts to offer a much better risk/reward. Andrew Spence from Aspen made a good point on this recently. At current yields, the carry now provides a meaningful cushion. Even if 10-year yields move materially higher from here, part of the price decline is … Continued