Category: Daily Instagraph

L’un des signaux les plus importants sur les marchés n’est pas seulement ce que les investisseurs sont prêts à payer, mais aussi le moment choisi par les actionnaires pour vendre. Le graphique ci-dessous met en évidence un point intéressant. Les valorisations des actions américaines, mesurées par le Shiller P/E, sont proches de leurs niveaux historiques … Continued

“If you torture the numbers long enough, they will eventually confess,” goes a famous quote often used in statistics. It is frequently argued that every individual valuation metric has its flaws and that no single measure can properly tell us how expensive the stock market really is. That is a fair point. Taken in isolation, … Continued

One of the key questions around the AI boom is no longer whether revenues are growing, but how much cash is left after the investment cycle. This chart shows the projected next 12-month free cash flow of the major hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta and Oracle. After years of strong growth, free cash flow … Continued

US households have rarely been this exposed to equities. According to the chart, equities and mutual funds now represent around 47% of total US household financial assets, the highest level in 75 years. This does not mean that a correction is imminent. Markets can remain expensive, concentrated and widely owned for a long time. But … Continued

The ECB has raised interest rates again, from 2.0% to 2.25%, after headline inflation moved above 3%. The explanation is a familiar one: inflation is too high and the ECB needs to act. This time, however, the inflation shock is largely imported, linked to energy and geopolitical tensions, while growth is already slowing. That makes … Continued

SpaceX is now being valued less like a rocket company and more like an entire aerospace index. At around $1.75 trillion, its valuation is roughly comparable to the combined market value of several global aerospace and defence leaders, including GE Aerospace, RTX, Boeing, Airbus, Safran and Honeywell. The comparison is not perfect: these are mature … Continued

For several years, US equities have benefited from a simple but powerful technical support: companies have bought back more shares than they issued. This kept net equity supply negative and supported prices, but this support may now start to weaken. As the chart shows, periods of positive net equity supply have often coincided with more … Continued

The current AI capex cycle is becoming one of the largest investment cycles in modern market history. At the peak of previous technological waves — railways, cars, telephony, electrification or IT — capital expenditure looked significant at the time. In historical context, however, today’s AI-related investment boom stands out. We believe in the AI revolution. … Continued

The free cash flow yield of the U.S. equity market is now close to its lowest level in 20 years. In simple terms, investors receive only around USD 3 of free cash flow for every USD 100 invested in the S&P 500. With 10-year U.S. Treasury yields around 4.5%, this is an uncomfortable valuation setup … Continued

According to BofA Global Research, semiconductors are now trading 62% above their 200-day moving average. Historically, major market bubbles peaked on average around 35% above their 200-day moving average. This does not mean that AI is a bubble in the simple sense of the word. The underlying technological transformation is real, the investment cycle is … Continued