Category: Daily Instagraph

Technology, Media & Telco stocks are experiencing one of their worst starts to the year relative to global equity markets in the past 50 years. Stretched valuations, concerns over excessive concentration in a handful of Big Tech names, and rising fears of AI disruption, particularly in software and media, are weighing on investor sentiment. Many … Continued

To put the market impact of the Iran conflict into perspective, today’s chart shows the performance of the Dow Jones during World War II, alongside an instructive comment from Warren Buffett on what to own in wartime: “Well, if you tell me all of that [major wars] is going to happen, I will still be … Continued

As the Iran conflict moves into its fifth day, markets are staying in defensive mode. In a nutshell: oil is up, the dollar and gold are up, and equity markets outside the US are feeling the selling pressure. The German DAX, for example, is down ~6% over the last three days, while the S&P 500 … Continued

As André Huwiler rightly points out in his latest Quotedian, the “Magnificent 7” have quietly turned into the “Maleficent 7”. As of last Friday, all seven names were negative year-to-date: Microsoft (-18.8%), Tesla (-10.5%), Amazon (-9.0%), Nvidia (-5.0%), Apple (-2.8%), Meta (-1.8%) and Alphabet (-0.4%). This is happening in an environment where the S&P 500 … Continued

A new military conflict involving the US and Iran has started, already affecting the Gulf states—costing lives and further destabilising the region. From a market perspective, the first point to keep in mind is that wars and geopolitical shocks typically do not derail equity markets over the long run. The chart below shows the performance … Continued

Interesting chart linking US companies’ labour costs with their exposure to AI automation. In a nutshell, sectors like software and business services are labour-intensive (think programmers, engineers, consultants) but also more exposed to AI-driven automation (e.g., automated coding, copilots, workflow agents). Conversely, sectors like food & beverage appear less exposed to AI automation, so the … Continued

Equity investors are rediscovering Europe as an asset class after years of US exceptionalism. Flows into European equities are reaching new record highs. The narrative is straightforward: a potential reversal after 17 years of relative underperformance versus the US, a clear valuation discount across most metrics, improving sentiment as fiscal spending ramps up — notably … Continued

Gold is up another 20% in USD year-to-date, +78% over the last 12 months, and it has tripled over five years. One key driver is the so-called “debasement trade”: investors lose confidence in fiat currencies and turn to gold as an ultimate store of value. What is more surprising is how isolated this move has … Continued

Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile — held mostly in US short-term government bonds (T-bills) — has reached a new record of $382bn. That is roughly 35% of Buffett’s holding company market cap, or enough to buy ~6.6x Danone (appropriate benchmark as I’m writing this over breakfast). Berkshire’s cash position is counter-cyclical by design. Historically, the group … Continued

The US Supreme Court has effectively capsized the current tariff setup. Over the weekend, the Trump administration moved quickly and announced a 15% global levy under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows tariffs to be imposed for up to 150 days without congressional approval. What becomes clear: even a “flat” tariff reshuffles … Continued