Category: Daily Instagraph

Jan David Meyer, CFA, recently put today’s bull market into a useful historical perspective. Since 1900, S&P 500 bull markets have lasted around four years on average and delivered gains of roughly 135%. At 3.8 years and close to +110%, the current bull market is therefore approaching its historical average duration. Does that mean the … Continued

With the geopolitical situation still highly uncertain and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz yet to be restored, oil continues to trade around USD 90 per barrel—well below its April peak of USD 120. Yet looking at crude oil alone understates the severity of the energy crisis for two reasons. First, inventories are being … Continued

For investors looking for dividend income, Europe currently offers a very different proposition from the US. The gross TTM dividend yield — dividends paid over the past twelve months relative to the current index level — stands at 3.42% for the STOXX Europe 600 and 3.19% for the DAX, compared with just 1.04% for the … Continued

No surprise for regular followers: Berkshire Hathaway remains a key investment in our portfolios. Q2 operating profit rose 16% to almost $13bn, although underlying growth was closer to 6% once currency effects are stripped out. More interesting to us is what happened on capital allocation. After 14 consecutive quarters of net equity selling, Berkshire became … Continued

Today’s graph from the Financial Times shows the share of European households that are net contributors to the State — paying more in taxes than they receive through transfers and public benefits. The striking point is that, in most EU countries, a majority of households receive more from the State than they contribute. In Italy … Continued

Two caveats before discussing gold. First, as it generates no cash flows, a hard asset such as gold is inherently difficult to value: its price is ultimately driven by supply and demand. Second, we rarely rely on technical indicators other than as an overlay to our fundamental analysis. With that in mind, gold rose more … Continued

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness is the latest high-profile victim in the hedge fund world. After spectacular gains, the fund suffered a severe drawdown as leverage, falling prices and deteriorating liquidity combined. In a recent article, Adrian Reid reviewed 62 hedge fund failures between 2005 and 2026. Only 21% were primarily caused by fraud or mismarking. … Continued

The forced deleveraging at Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund is a stark reminder that identifying the right secular trend is not enough to guarantee investment success. A crowded trade, excessive leverage and renewed concerns about interest rates can quickly turn conviction into margin calls. In July, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 21%—its worst month since the … Continued

Despite the renewed hostilities with Iran and the disruption to oil supplies, Brent remains below its 2026 high reached in April. Today’s graph helps explain why: weaker demand has absorbed roughly one quarter of the supply shock. The coordinated release of strategic reserves has also cushioned the impact. However, this buffer is becoming thinner: the … Continued

Joe Little, Global Chief Strategist at HSBC Asset Management, highlights an important contrast within today’s markets: while some segments display increasingly speculative characteristics, others remain largely neglected. These markets combine limited investor interest, relatively modest valuations and greater potential sensitivity to future interest-rate cuts. Because they are less crowded—and carry fewer excessive expectations—they may also … Continued