Category: Daily Instagraph

Markets have come a long way — from extreme fear when Trump announced his initial tariff plan earlier this year… to extreme greed today. The CNN Fear & Greed Index, which tracks investor sentiment across seven market indicators, has swung sharply. Below 25 signals fear, above 75 greed — and as the chart shows, emotions … Continued

Foreign appetite for US assets is drying up. As Deutsche Bank’s latest data shows, net buying of both US bonds and equities by foreign-domiciled funds has collapsed to near zero. With persistent US twin deficits and growing uncertainty, global investors are simply not showing up. That matters. As Deutsche Bank points out, this could mean … Continued

At ECP, one of our core convictions is the return to a normalised interest rate environment. This chart — spanning 5,000 years — reminds us that near-zero rates between the Global Financial Crisis and the exit of the Covid pandemic were the exception, not the rule. That period was marked by unprecedented central bank liquidity … Continued

US fiscal policy is clearly on an unsustainable path. Twin deficits — both fiscal and trade — are weighing on confidence. Net interest costs are elevated, borrowing now finances over a quarter of government spending, and the term premium continues to rise. Markets remain calm for now, but stress could surface quickly, particularly if Treasury … Continued

It’s been a full roundtrip for US large-cap equities this year. As the graph shows, the rebound of US equities is more broad-based. Even when excluding the so-called Magnificent Seven, US large caps are back at new highs. But let’s not forget the bigger picture: despite the rebound, US equities still lag global markets by … Continued

As today’s chart shows, only 10% of NYSE trading is now driven by active managers — down from 80% in 1995. At the same time, more than half of global equity assets are now passively managed. This shift goes against a cornerstone of our philosophy: that stock prices should reflect the fundamentals of the businesses … Continued

For those just back from a long vacation without access to news — welcome. Here’s a quick catch-up in two charts. Trump’s shock-and-awe approach on tariffs seems to be delivering, at least if you judge by market signals. The USD has weakened meaningfully, down more than 11% year-to-date against the euro, now trading below 0.86. … Continued

Since the introduction of a baseline 10% US tariff in early April, manufacturing PMIs across developed markets have surprised to the upside. As Bloomberg’s John Authers notes, global industry seems — at least on the surface — to be absorbing the shock. Stockpiling may explain part of the resilience, but inflation has remained contained, and … Continued

Oil prices dropped sharply following Trump’s surprise ceasefire announcement on Truth Social after Iran’s limited strike on a Qatari air base. While it’s too early to say the conflict is resolved, the message is clear: for now, no side appears to be pushing for further escalation. Markets responded swiftly — oil slumped, equities rallied. Once … Continued

Swiss watch exports fell nearly 10% in value in May. The biggest market, the U.S., was down 25% in value and China, the second biggest market, was down 17.4%. What also stands out: it’s the wealthiest consumers who pulled back the most, with high-luxury watches down 17.1% according to the report. These products serve the … Continued