Category: Daily Instagraph

One more on bonds before the weekend — a rare sequence for me as an equity investor. To follow up on the bond charts shared in the Daily this week, today’s graph looks at the sensitivity of different U.S. fixed-income segments to changes in interest rates. The message is increasingly interesting. At current yields, bonds … Continued

The bond market is getting interesting again. After five painful years, duration starts to offer a much better risk/reward. Andrew Spence from Aspen made a good point on this recently. At current yields, the carry now provides a meaningful cushion. Even if 10-year yields move materially higher from here, part of the price decline is … Continued

This is one chart by Dhaval Joshi every investor in US tech should keep on the desk as we enter Q4 2026. AI capex has gone almost vertical, led largely by the hyperscalers. That spending boom is feeding demand and pricing power across the technology supply chain and has helped push US tech profit margins … Continued

For years, bonds offered little competition to equities. That has changed. As John Authers points out, the spread between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the 10-year Treasury yield is now close to its most negative level in almost 25 years. In simple terms, investors are once again being paid meaningfully to own bonds. After … Continued

The US 30-year Treasury yield stands at 5.51% this morning, versus just 1.67% in December 2021. Over the past six years, the 30-year Treasury price return index has fallen around 60%, while US nominal GDP has increased by 63%. As BofA’s Michael Hartnett summarizes it, the 2020s are an era of fiscal excess, political populism, … Continued

The U.S. economy is clearly not slowing down. The September flash Composite PMI jumped to 58.4, its strongest level since July 2021. Manufacturing came in at 57.0 versus 54.0 expected, Services at 58.7 versus 55.8. Every number beat expectations. Good news for growth, less so for bonds. The market repriced the interest-rate path following yesterday’s … Continued

It is all a matter of perspective. After more than four decades of declining interest rates — and with rates close to zero only five years ago — a US 10-year Treasury yield around 5% feels high. The 10-year stood at roughly 4.96% yesterday. But viewed over more than two centuries, today’s level looks remarkably … Continued

France is back on the radar. The 10-year OAT/Bund spread has moved to around 100 bps, a level not seen since the euro crisis in 2012. The reasons are well known: deficits above 5%, debt approaching 120% of GDP, weak growth and political fragmentation. Also interesting to watch: the euro. Historically, wider French spreads have … Continued

Ryan Lemand recently highlighted a useful lesson from the Nasdaq collapse of 2000–2002. The index ultimately fell around 78%, but the journey down included rallies of approximately +35%, +12%, +25%, +41% and +45%. Each rebound could have looked like the bottom. Each one gave investors, conditioned by the preceding bull market to “buy the dip”, … Continued

In just 118 days, Kevin Warsh has already profoundly changed interest-rate expectations. The chart shows how, since he took office in May and following Jackson Hole, markets have gradually priced in a significantly more restrictive monetary path. Yesterday’s Fed decision confirmed this shift in regime. More important than the decision itself was the message: the … Continued