Category: Daily Instagraph

Another interesting analysis shared by André Huwiler, based on 155 years of Robert Shiller’s US market data, suggests that equities have historically delivered lower returns during periods of rising bond yields than during periods of declining yields. At first glance, this makes sense. Lower rates mean cheaper financing for companies and lower discount rates for … Continued

Yesterday, we looked at how France historically dealt with excessive public debt: through inflation. Todays chart shows that financial markets are becoming increasingly concerned about Frances ability to manage its debt within the constraints of the euro. The yield on French 10-year government bonds has climbed to 4.93%, compared with 3.40% for German Bunds. The … Continued

An interesting chart from Costa Vayenas, author of The Swiss Franc, 1798–2055, tells us a lot about France’s economic history — and potentially its future. For much of the last century, France had a relatively simple way of dealing with excessive debt and economic imbalances: inflation and currency depreciation. After both World Wars, inflation helped … Continued

Earlier this week, we showed how earnings growth has done the heavy lifting for US equities. Our portfolio management intern, Maxence Brands , has run the same analysis for Europe. The picture is quite different. Since October 2022, the STOXX Europe 600 has gained around 65%. But much of that performance came from valuation expansion … Continued

At the end of Q3 2026, the S&P 500 was trading close to its all-time high. Yet beneath the surface, the picture was very different. 58% of its constituents were more than 20% below their individual peaks, and 40% had fallen by over 30%. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down 1.8% year-to-date, compared with … Continued

Are we in a stock market bubble? Perhaps an earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. Since October 2022, the S&P 500 has gained more than 110%. Interestingly, most of this performance has come from earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Earnings have done the heavy lifting. But there is a catch. The S&P 500 has … Continued

Two Americas, two very different realities. Wall Street is celebrating new highs, while Main Street is losing confidence. The S&P 500 continues to climb, even as US consumer confidence falls to new lows. The K-shaped economy is becoming increasingly visible. Asset owners benefit from rising equity markets, while households without significant financial assets struggle with … Continued

Great chart from André Huwiler : 35 cents of every dollar invested in the S&P 500 go into just seven companies. The smallest 401 companies together account for only 23.5%. An extraordinary concentration, but also an interesting consequence of the massive shift towards passive investing. The more these companies outperform, the larger their weight in … Continued

The S&P 500 is experiencing its largest outperformance against its equally weighted counterpart since the internet bubble. Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the S&P 500 has gained 118%, compared to 67% for the equally weighted index. A gap of more than 50 percentage points. During the internet bubble, the difference reached 68 … Continued

Tavi Costa’s chart makes an interesting point: after almost 15 years of relentless US outperformance, the trend may finally be starting to change. That does not mean US tech is finished. But the next phase of AI investment should broaden well beyond semiconductors and software. It also requires power, grids, data centres, copper and physical … Continued