Category: Daily Instagraph

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee cut the fed funds rate yesterday from 4.0% to 3.75%, taking it back to the lowest level since October 2022. The market can take some comfort from the fact that only two members argued against any cut at all – there is, for now, still a broad consensus … Continued

According to the graph below, based on an analysis by David Fant using EU fine data and company filings, EU regulators collected about €3.8 bn in fines from large US tech companies in 2024, while Europe’s listed internet and software companies paid roughly €3.2 bn in income taxes over the same period. The contrast is … Continued

Today’s chart from Apollo’s Chief Economist shows that close to 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 index currently report negative earnings over the last 12 months. Investing via a broad small-cap index therefore means having a meaningful exposure to businesses that are not yet profitable. In an environment of slower growth or higher … Continued

As we approach year-end, implied volatility across equities, bonds and FX has fallen back towards 12-month lows. This likely reflects a certain complacency among investors who, after a generally good year for equity and balanced portfolios, hope to be “saved by the closing bell”. We should, however, be careful not to mistake this calm for … Continued

Today’s graph from MarketDesk shows the median next-12-month P/E ratios across the S&P 500, sorted by market-cap buckets. The headline index trades around 22x earnings, but the Top 10 names are much richer at 27.4x 12-month forward earnings. As you move down the index, valuations become less stretched, with the smallest 200 stocks in the … Continued

The stock market has turned the global obesity and diabetes epidemic into a two-horse race between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Today, almost all investor focus is on the market shares of their GLP-1 franchises and on the potential success of oral versions of these anti-obesity drugs. Today’s graph shows Novo Nordisk’s P/E ratio versus … Continued

The S&P 500 is up 16.1% year-to-date as of yesterday’s close. Barring a correction in December, 2025 will be one of the green years in this 150-year history of S&P 500 returns. Once again, it was a year full of drama: geopolitical tensions, tariffs and trade negotiations, and ongoing debates about the Fed. We are … Continued

Today’s chart shows the S&P 500 trading at 5.3x book value – the highest level since WWII. Many investors question how useful book value still is as a yardstick. With the rise of technology and services, businesses have become less capital-intensive, while years of M&A have filled balance sheets with goodwill and other intangibles that … Continued

Today’s graph compares inflation-adjusted public pensions per head with compensation per employee. Across Europe, public pensions have risen significantly faster than salaries. In particular, countries hit hardest by the Eurozone crisis — such as Greece, Italy, and Spain — have seen stagnating or even falling wages. Interestingly, the burden of internal devaluation to regain competitiveness … Continued

Germany’s economy has clearly lost competitiveness. Over the last 25 years, GDP growth has been modest and recently even turned negative. One major reason: private capital investment increased by only ~15%, while government consumption surged by ~60%. When the State expands and private investment stagnates, productivity and competitiveness inevitably suffer.