Category: Daily Instagraph

Oil prices dropped sharply following Trump’s surprise ceasefire announcement on Truth Social after Iran’s limited strike on a Qatari air base. While it’s too early to say the conflict is resolved, the message is clear: for now, no side appears to be pushing for further escalation. Markets responded swiftly — oil slumped, equities rallied. Once … Continued

Swiss watch exports fell nearly 10% in value in May. The biggest market, the U.S., was down 25% in value and China, the second biggest market, was down 17.4%. What also stands out: it’s the wealthiest consumers who pulled back the most, with high-luxury watches down 17.1% according to the report. These products serve the … Continued

According to the latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, institutional investors are now the most underweight the US dollar in 20 years. The reasons are well understood: rising political uncertainty, persistent US twin deficits, and a growing shift by central banks away from the dollar as a reserve currency. Year-to-date, the USD has already lost … Continued

US exceptionalism continues to be challenged — not just geopolitically, but also in financial markets. According to the widely followed Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, fewer than one in four institutional investors now expect US equities to be the best-performing asset class over the next five years. Instead, 54% see international stocks leading … Continued

Foreign investors now hold a record share of long-duration US Treasuries — with over 14% of their holdings in maturities beyond 10 years. This reflects both a search for yield and a continued belief in the safety of US government bonds, despite growing concerns over fiscal sustainability and political polarization. At ECP, while we follow … Continued

Oil prices jumped again after renewed strikes between Israel and Iran, with Brent briefly up over 5%. The real concern for markets at the current stage: a potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for ~20% of global oil flows. Behind geopolitical shocks, we are present in the energy sector for as … Continued

Overnight, Israel launched an attack on Iran, targeting nuclear and military infrastructure. It’s a stark reminder that geopolitical risk never truly disappears — it merely fades in and out of the market’s attention. It also highlights the limits of American influence in global affairs. As recently as April, Trump declared: “Under my leadership, Iran knew … Continued

Gold in USD is up 28% year-to-date and nearly 95% over the past five years — a remarkable run for an asset that generates no cash flows. A key driver behind this rally: central banks. As the chart below shows, gold has now overtaken the euro as the second-largest component of global official reserves. The … Continued

The underperformance of small caps is not just a U.S. phenomenon. In Europe as well—particularly in Germany—small caps have significantly lagged behind large caps. Over the past five years, the MDAX has gained just under 20%, while the DAX has doubled (+100%) over the same period—one of the widest performance gaps in recent history. Valuations … Continued

Over the past nine weeks, we’ve seen the sharpest drop in the VIX—the S&P 500’s volatility index—in over 50 years, with a decline of 63%. Statistically, this marks the most significant 90-day compression in volatility since 1990. That in itself is striking. But what’s perhaps more interesting is what tends to happen next. Historically, such … Continued