Category: Daily Instagraph

Foreign investors now hold a record share of long-duration US Treasuries — with over 14% of their holdings in maturities beyond 10 years. This reflects both a search for yield and a continued belief in the safety of US government bonds, despite growing concerns over fiscal sustainability and political polarization. At ECP, while we follow … Continued

Oil prices jumped again after renewed strikes between Israel and Iran, with Brent briefly up over 5%. The real concern for markets at the current stage: a potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for ~20% of global oil flows. Behind geopolitical shocks, we are present in the energy sector for as … Continued

Overnight, Israel launched an attack on Iran, targeting nuclear and military infrastructure. It’s a stark reminder that geopolitical risk never truly disappears — it merely fades in and out of the market’s attention. It also highlights the limits of American influence in global affairs. As recently as April, Trump declared: “Under my leadership, Iran knew … Continued

Gold in USD is up 28% year-to-date and nearly 95% over the past five years — a remarkable run for an asset that generates no cash flows. A key driver behind this rally: central banks. As the chart below shows, gold has now overtaken the euro as the second-largest component of global official reserves. The … Continued

The underperformance of small caps is not just a U.S. phenomenon. In Europe as well—particularly in Germany—small caps have significantly lagged behind large caps. Over the past five years, the MDAX has gained just under 20%, while the DAX has doubled (+100%) over the same period—one of the widest performance gaps in recent history. Valuations … Continued

Over the past nine weeks, we’ve seen the sharpest drop in the VIX—the S&P 500’s volatility index—in over 50 years, with a decline of 63%. Statistically, this marks the most significant 90-day compression in volatility since 1990. That in itself is striking. But what’s perhaps more interesting is what tends to happen next. Historically, such … Continued

It was a brutal session for some of America’s most attention-grabbing names. Tesla dropped 14%, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) fell 8%, and TrumpCoin slid 9%. The backdrop? A heated clash between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, with both now exchanging personal attacks. What began as a policy disagreement over the “Big Beautiful Bill” … Continued

For over a decade, US equities have left Europe far behind. Since 2010, the S&P 500 is up 616% in USD, while MSCI Europe returned just 221% in EUR. Even over the past 10 years: +235% vs. +75%. Valuations followed the same path. The S&P 500’s P/E rose from 18.3x to 25.5x (+39%), while MSCI … Continued

In Europe, the latest inflation data came in below expectations, driven by a notable drop in services prices. This has cleared the way for the ECB to cut rates this Thursday, a move markets have already started to price in, as shown by the continued decline in the implied ECB rate for June 2025. Whether … Continued

The chart below highlights an unusual convergence: the 5-year CDS spread of the United States is now trading close that of Italy and Greece. CDS spreads are a barometer of sovereign credit risk, and the recent spike in U.S. spreads reflects growing concerns over fiscal sustainability, political gridlock, and mounting debt levels. The fact that … Continued