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Category: Daily Instagraph

U-turn ?

By leon

The “alchemist-in-chief” ignited a remarkable rally in equity markets yesterday, announcing a 10% tariff for 90 days on all trading partners except China. Markets reacted with enthusiasm: the Nasdaq surged by 12.2%, the S&P 500 gained 9.5%, and Japan’s market is up 8.6% this morning. European futures are also trading strongly higher. Meanwhile, Trump escalated … Continued

Lost trust

By leon

As we mentioned in our Sunday memo on recent market volatility: “Some observers suggest that Trump’s tariff strategy is less about protectionism and more about engineering a slowdown to push interest rates lower — a deliberate attempt to manage the cost of refinancing the $9 trillion in U.S. debt maturing by 2026… With the 10-year … Continued

Focus on the long term

By leon

Yesterday’s trading session was once again not for the faint of heart. The DAX moved an extraordinary 11% between its low and high, while the S&P 500 saw intraday swings of 7.8%. For any trader, this level of volatility is extremely difficult to manage—especially when it’s driven by quickly reversed rumors, like a supposed 90-day … Continued

The Alchimist

By leon

Asian markets are in the red again this morning, and European equity futures are following suit as investors digest Donald Trump’s latest tariff rhetoric. It’s becoming increasingly evident that the resulting drag on global trade could weigh heavily on economic growth. Interestingly, some are now floating a more strategic — or conspiratorial — interpretation: that … Continued

Hoped for the best, got the worst

By leon

While we were, of course, hoping for a positive outcome on Liberation Day, it took no more than 20 minutes into yesterday’s Trump press conference to realize we got the worst. Our initial, unfiltered takeaways are the following: What we are witnessing looks very much like a declaration of a trade war against the rest … Continued

Liberation day

By leon

Trump is set to unveil new tariffs today — yet even hours before the announcement, the details remain unsettled. A flat-rate system or country-specific levies are both being considered, with targets including the EU, Japan, and Canada. The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has now reached its highest level since 2015. At ECP, we believe such … Continued

April’s fish

By leon

It was a great honour for me and for all of us at ECP to welcome Warren Buffett yesterday here in Luxembourg. Mr. Buffett was en route from Omaha to Japan for a meeting with the management of one of Berkshire Hathaway’s newest holdings. Despite his tight schedule, he took the time to sit down … Continued

One swallow does not make a Summer

By leon

With just one trading session left in the quarter, the German equity market is on track to post its strongest first-quarter performance relative to the S&P 500 since 1960. A clear rotation is underway: investors are moving out of US equities and rediscovering the rest of the world — with Europe, in particular, starting to … Continued

The great discount

By leon

Exor’s net asset value rose by 9% last year, which Chairman & CEO John Elkann found a little disappointing compared to the MSCI World’s performance. The real engine was Ferrari, while difficulties at Stellantis held it back. Additionally, last year, the company increased its exposure to the healthcare sector, mainly through its stake in Philips. … Continued

Safety first

By leon

One of the recent additions to our SSF European Value Fund is Autoliv, a leading manufacturer of airbags. We appreciate Autoliv’s strong execution and its partnerships with all major OEMs, which underpin its solid market share in the automotive passive safety segment. We also like the fact that it’s not a bet on the success … Continued