Category: Daily Instagraph

The 30-year US Treasury yield has moved back above 5%, reflecting renewed concerns around inflation and fiscal pressures. June CPI data showed persistent service inflation and early signs that tariffs may be starting to impact core goods prices—leaving the Fed little room to cut rates in the near term. Higher long-term yields increase debt servicing … Continued

The MOVE Index, Wall Street’s bond volatility gauge, has dropped back to the bottom of its range — signalling remarkable calm despite rising political noise around Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While social media buzzes with resignation rumors, markets aren’t pricing in panic: futures show little change in rate expectations. But a forced exit would shake … Continued

We are not writing about Fed independence, a potential resignation of Jerome Powell, or EU tariffs this morning — not because these topics aren’t relevant, but because we don’t have any additional insights at this stage. This morning, European stock futures are pointing 0.6% lower, while the EU’s political leadership continues to struggle to negotiate … Continued

Good morning,   If your great-grandparents had invested just 1 USD in US equities in 1900 and let it compound — without touching it — that single dollar would be worth 107,409 USD today. The chart says it all. Equities returned 9.7% per year, while bonds and bills delivered much lower compounded results: 268 USD … Continued

We’ve started to build a position in Christian Dior within our European Value Fund. The rationale? The luxury sector has been a serial underperformer over the last 15 months, with a 20% drop since its peak in early 2024. That’s not a surprise — Chinese demand remains subdued, macro headwinds persist, and tariffs add uncertainty. … Continued

We started building a position in our European Value Fund in German midcap Gerresheimer AG in April 2025. The long-term investment case is compelling: a global leader in pharmaceutical packaging and drug delivery systems like prefillable syringes and insulin pens, operating in a market driven by structural healthcare trends — ageing populations, chronic disease, and … Continued

Markets have come a long way — from extreme fear when Trump announced his initial tariff plan earlier this year… to extreme greed today. The CNN Fear & Greed Index, which tracks investor sentiment across seven market indicators, has swung sharply. Below 25 signals fear, above 75 greed — and as the chart shows, emotions … Continued

Foreign appetite for US assets is drying up. As Deutsche Bank’s latest data shows, net buying of both US bonds and equities by foreign-domiciled funds has collapsed to near zero. With persistent US twin deficits and growing uncertainty, global investors are simply not showing up. That matters. As Deutsche Bank points out, this could mean … Continued

At ECP, one of our core convictions is the return to a normalised interest rate environment. This chart — spanning 5,000 years — reminds us that near-zero rates between the Global Financial Crisis and the exit of the Covid pandemic were the exception, not the rule. That period was marked by unprecedented central bank liquidity … Continued

US fiscal policy is clearly on an unsustainable path. Twin deficits — both fiscal and trade — are weighing on confidence. Net interest costs are elevated, borrowing now finances over a quarter of government spending, and the term premium continues to rise. Markets remain calm for now, but stress could surface quickly, particularly if Treasury … Continued