Category: Daily Instagraph

A quote often attributed to Isaac Newton says: “I can calculate the motion of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Newton invested early in the South Sea Company and made good money — then re-entered as speculation turned into mania and lost heavily. It’s a useful reminder: markets are a humbling machine. … Continued

Interesting chart from UBS (shared by Ben Carlson, Ritholtz Wealth Management). At the start of the 20th century, the US stock market represented 14.5% of global equity markets. Today, it represents 60.5%. The UK was the largest market in 1899 at roughly a quarter of the global total; it has now shrunk to 3.7%. Belgium … Continued

Was it a negotiation tactic? Another TACO ( Trump Always Chickens Out ) move? Markets certainly took President Trump’s latest comments that way and looked relieved. The chart is a useful reminder of the broader backdrop: Europe holds close to $3.6 trillion of US Treasuries — nearly 40% of all foreign-held Treasuries. This matters, but … Continued

President Trump has pushed the US “gunboat policy” to a new level, threatening an additional 10% tariff on several EU countries unless they accept a deal on Greenland. European leaders have now entered a fresh phase of escalation with Washington. On the economic side, the first-round hit looks manageable. Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% … Continued

Trump’s second presidency marks its first year. For investors, the past months have been anything but quiet: tariff announcements, renewed trade tensions, and repeated questions around central-bank independence have translated into headline risk and higher volatility. We start 2026 with another round of “gunboat diplomacy”, where global trade is increasingly used as a negotiating tool. … Continued

This chart from the Financial Times illustrates how US consumption has become increasingly concentrated. The top 10% of earners now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, while the bottom 80% has steadily lost share over the past three decades. From a macro and investor perspective, this matters: when demand is driven by a … Continued

Today’s chart comes from Octavian Adrian Tănase. Historically, productivity in the US financial sector moved broadly in line with labour demand: when margins were under pressure in a zero-rate world, efficiency was the name of the game, and headcount tended to follow activity. Since 2022, with the return of interest rates, that relationship has broken … Continued

AI is no longer just a technology trend—it is now visible in the macro data. In the US, AI-related investment already represents around 1% of GDP if you only count data centres and IT manufacturing. If you widen the lens to include broader IT equipment and software, the number moves closer to 5% of GDP. … Continued

Interesting chart from Asserta Asset Management: over the past three years, the strong performance of global equity markets has been driven mainly by Communication Services and Information Technology—more specifically by companies linked to the AI revolution. AI is clearly enhancing the earning power of many businesses, and AI infrastructure capex should continue to grow, creating … Continued

2025 goes down as a fairly average year in terms of returns for the S&P 500 (in USD): despite all the drama and volatility during the year, the index still finished up 16.4%. That is actually very consistent with the long-term distribution of outcomes. Over 1900–2025, the S&P 500 delivered positive returns in about 68% … Continued