Category: Daily Instagraph

Welcome to Wall Street’s latest phrase: the “Taco Trade.” No, it’s not about lunch—it stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. Last Friday, markets served up a familiar dish. An immediate 50% tariff threat from Trump triggered a sharp drop in the Euro STOXX-600. By the end of Friday, the index had already recovered about half … Continued

The stock market is the opposite of a casino. In a casino, the odds are rigged against you the longer you play. In the stock market, the odds shift in your favor the longer you stay invested. This chart illustrates the point clearly: while 1-year returns for equities can swing wildly—from +53% to -44%—the range … Continued

This chart tells a simple but striking story: since the end of 2019, Germany has barely grown. Despite massive fiscal support and historic stimulus efforts during the pandemic, Germany’s GDP is up just 0.3%—while the U.S. economy has expanded over 12%. Even the Eurozone average has left Germany behind, and Italy and Spain have quietly … Continued

Trump’s much-touted “one big, beautiful bill” — the 2026 U.S. House Reconciliation Bill — reveals a striking imbalance in the distribution of tax cuts. According to ITEP,  the wealthiest 20% of Americans are set to receive 67% of the total benefits, while the bottom 60% will share just 17%. This skewed allocation highlights how fiscal … Continued

Tepid demand at the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction, the loss of Moody’s top credit rating, 30-year bond yields surpassing 5.1%, and ongoing political turmoil are casting fresh doubts on U.S. exceptionalism and weighing on investor sentiment toward U.S. equities. In contrast, European equities are beginning to stand out. Trading at a record valuation discount to … Continued

For many investors, duration risk remains an abstract concept—until it impacts their portfolios. Consider a real-life example: if you had invested five years ago in a U.S. Treasury bond maturing in 2050 with a 1.25% coupon, you would have seen its value cut in half. Why? Because yields on 30-year U.S. government bonds have risen … Continued

The younger generation of stock market investors has grown up with the narrative of US exceptionalism. This perception has been reinforced by the strong outperformance of US equities in recent years, largely driven by highly profitable and fast-growing companies—particularly in the Big Tech sector. However, today’s chart from Carmignac reminds us that this dominance is … Continued

Interesting tweet from Donald Trump over the weekend : “Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain. Walmart made BILLIONS OF DOLLARS last year, far more than expected. Between Walmart and China they should, as is said, “EAT THE TARIFFS”, and not charge valued customers ANYTHING. I’ll … Continued

Despite the fiscal restraint narrative championed by Elon Musk’s “Doge” initiative, the U.S. is currently experiencing its largest budget deficit outside of a recession. In fiscal year 2024, the deficit reached $1.9 trillion, marking the third-largest in U.S. history, trailing only the pandemic-era shortfalls . This fiscal backdrop is set against the Trump 2.0 administration’s … Continued

Amid the tariff storm unleashed by the Trump 2.0 administration, investors have begun to question the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism. Despite a recent rebound, both the U.S. equity market and the Magnificent Seven have significantly underperformed global markets since the start of the year. What has gone largely unnoticed, however, is the continued neglect of … Continued