Category: Daily Instagraph

As we approach November 2025, valuations in the US stock market remain uncomfortably high relative to their own history. No matter how you look at it—forward price-to-earnings, cyclically adjusted P/E, or price-to-book—the conclusion is the same. Even when excluding the ten largest stocks in the S&P 500, valuations remain close to the levels seen during … Continued

The United States now spends more on interest payments for its debt than on national defense. We find this rather worrying in the current geopolitical environment. Even more concerning, the Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2049, interest expenses will nearly double the defense budget. This says a lot about the future standing of the … Continued

In recent weeks, several technical indicators have signalled that the seemingly unstoppable uptrend in gold and silver required a pause. For instance, as the following chart shows, last week the weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) for silver reached 86, one of the highest values ever recorded. Even during the previous major bull market in precious … Continued

Gold had its worst session in 12 years, falling more than 5% yesterday. We believe this correction was mainly technical, as some investors took profits after a stellar year for the yellow metal. In USD terms, gold remains up more than 50% year-to-date. The “debasement trade” remains indeed firmly in place: with unsustainable debt levels … Continued

China has been quietly taking the lead in the most critical technologies of our time. Not only does most high-impact research now originate from China, but Chinese entities also hold the majority of active patents worldwide. This shift has deep implications for the long-term competitiveness of the US and Europe. A strong education system, well-funded … Continued

Margin debt in the U.S. stock market has reached 1.1 trillion USD, a new record unseen in financial history. Combined with the fact that it is mainly private investors who have been buying while institutional investors and hedge funds have been net sellers, this setup looks increasingly fragile. Historically, high margin debt levels have tended … Continued

Yes, valuations in the S&P 500 remain elevated — both relative to their own history and compared to other markets. Yes, the concentration in a few mega-cap tech names is unusually high. However, what currently drives the US stock market is earnings growth, not multiple expansion. This marks a fundamental difference from the Internet bubble, … Continued

Today’s chart shows how the top 10 companies by market capitalization in the S&P 500 have evolved over the last five decades. The first striking fact: none of the leaders of 2005 remain in today’s top 10. Only Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft and JPMorgan have survived from the 2015 list. The current top 10 is … Continued

BlackRock’s assets under management have reached a new record of 13.5 trillion USD. For reference, that’s roughly 6 times the value of the German stock market (DAX) and about 4 times the French one (CAC 40). Of course, BlackRock’s scale extends far beyond equities — the firm has seen substantial growth across fixed income and … Continued

It was not long ago that Europeans and Americans worried about China’s cheap labor. They probably still do — but the real threat has evolved. China is now a global leader in factory automation. It installs more industrial robots each year than the rest of the world combined, and its robot density has already surpassed … Continued