Category: Daily Instagraph

As shown in our daily a couple of days ago, oil futures remain in backwardation, with the curve clearly sloping downward and December delivery still trading below the current spot price. This continues to suggest that forward markets are not really believing in a long lasting oil shock. Today’s chart adds an important confirmation to … Continued

While most investor attention is currently focused on equity markets and commodities, we should not forget that there has also been action on the bond side, with interest rates gradually moving upwards globally over the past five years ( here 10 year government yields for Germany and US ). This may be seen as a … Continued

One of the more important messages from recent central-bank communication is that policymakers are becoming more hawkish again in response to the inflation risks linked to the war in Iran. As Bloomberg reports, the ECB is now openly discussing the possibility of rate hikes should higher energy prices start to feed into second-round effects and … Continued

Yesterday, we highlighted that the oil forward curve remains in backwardation, with December 2026 Brent prices still in the mid-$70s. Our conclusion was that the oil futures market is pricing a short-term shock rather than a lasting structural oil crisis. In other words, traders do not appear to believe that the current escalation will keep … Continued

When assessing the impact of the Iran war on financial markets, investors naturally focus on the spot oil price. But the more informative indicator is often the oil forward curve. Today’s graph compares the forward curve three months ago with today. While near-term oil prices have risen sharply, prices for delivery further out have moved … Continued

The performance of Austria’s 100-year bond since issuance is a striking real-life example of what can happen when investors underestimate duration risk. When the Austrian government issued the bond in late 2017 with a 2.5% coupon, falling yields pushed its price dramatically higher, eventually reaching 237. Today, with the yield at around 3.7%, the bond … Continued

As Warren Buffett rightly said, “The best time to get rich is a crisis,” provided one has independent thinking, financial preparation and the right temperament. Charlie Munger usefully completes the thought: temperament alone is not enough; it must be combined with the right basic idea and pursued with curiosity over a long period of time. … Continued

As we wrote last week, the key issue was never the headlines alone, but whether the conflict would turn into a lasting oil shock. For now, that is still not what markets are signaling. As John Authers, columnist at Bloomberg Opinion, points out, Brent crude surged from around $84 to almost $119 and then fell … Continued

As we write this morning, the conflict with Iran is clearly intensifying and financial markets are reacting accordingly. Brent crude has surged above USD 110 per barrel, Japanese equities are sharply lower with the Nikkei down around 7%, and both European and US futures are deeply in the red. In other words, markets are no … Continued

Technology, Media & Telco stocks are experiencing one of their worst starts to the year relative to global equity markets in the past 50 years. Stretched valuations, concerns over excessive concentration in a handful of Big Tech names, and rising fears of AI disruption, particularly in software and media, are weighing on investor sentiment. Many … Continued