Category: DAILY INSTAGRAPH

Yesterday’s 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve serves as a reminder of the central bank’s dual mandate, unlike the ECB’s singular focus on inflation. The Fed is tasked with managing both inflation and employment, and it was likely concerns over the latter that prompted a more aggressive cut than most analysts expected. … Continued

Yesterday, we discussed how equity markets have historically delivered strong performance in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut—except in cases of recession. As one of my colleagues from the PM team, Benedikt Palmason, aptly noted, central banks lower rates for a reason. A rate cut typically signals slowing economic growth and mounting … Continued

It seems the key question is no longer whether the Fed will cut interest rates this Wednesday, but by how much—either 25 or 50 basis points. Historically, the U.S. stock market has responded positively to the first rate cut, often posting double-digit gains in the following 12 months. However, there are two notable exceptions: 2001 … Continued

During my holidays in California, I had the chance not only to watch the Presidential debate firsthand but also to closely follow the commentary from various U.S. media outlets, each aligned with different political perspectives. While it was evident that Harris delivered a solid performance and Trump had his weaker moments—including the now-infamous “dog and … Continued

Concentration risk is a growing concern, as over 70% of the major mutual funds monitored by Bank of America hold significant stakes in six of the “Magnificent 7” stocks, excluding Tesla. Notably, positions in Meta, Apple, NVIDIA, Google, and Amazon have even increased since the start of the year. The potential danger arises if portfolio … Continued

In the U.S. stock market, sectors most sensitive to falling interest rates are currently underrepresented by investors. This under-ownership is assessed by comparing each sector’s market capitalization relative to the overall market cap of the S&P 500 and its average sector weight throughout the 20th century. As interest rates decline, under-owned sectors such as materials, … Continued

With the volatility seen in stock markets at the beginning of August, the publication of Q2 earnings has somewhat moved in the background for investors. With most of the result season now behind us, the good news is that US companies have shown very solid results in Q2. 56% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus … Continued

Over the last 30 years, MSCI China did not show ANY return in USD terms. At the same time, Chinese stocks showed 6 intra-year corrections of more than 40% and average drawdowns of 30.4%. With the benefit of hindsight, it therefore made little sense to invest in Chinese stocks despite the strong narrative of the … Continued

Donald Trump, during his US presidential campaign, argued that the President should have a significant role in influencing the decisions of the Federal Reserve. “I believe the President should have a say, absolutely. I feel very strongly about that,” he stated. This should raise serious concerns among financial investors, as the independence of central banks … Continued

Gold prices in USD have surged, climbing 62% over the past five years, 29% in the past year, and 19% just this year. The resurgence in demand for gold is driven by factors such as rising interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties. Recent financial market volatility has highlighted that cryptocurrencies may lack the same safe-haven … Continued