Category: Daily Instagraph

This quarter, European markets are delivering the harshest punishment for earnings misses since 2005. On average, Stoxx 600 companies falling short of expectations are underperforming the index by 2.3 percentage points — despite already lowered forecasts going into the season. The reaction reflects fragile sentiment following renewed enthusiasm for European equities earlier this year. Investors … Continued

James Carville, campaign strategist for Bill Clinton in 1992, famously summed up electoral outcomes in these words: “It’s the economy, stupid.”  Friday’s data confirm why the current administration is concerned — the U.S. labour market has slowed sharply. Over the past three months, only 106,000 jobs were created, less than one-third of Q1 levels. The … Continued

While investor attention remains fixated on large caps, the valuation gap with small caps has reached historic extremes. In the U.S., the combined market value of the five largest companies now exceeds that of the entire Russell 2000 index by a factor of five — an unprecedented level. This imbalance creates fertile ground for long-term … Continued

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan and one of the most influential bankers of our time, delivered a stark assessment of Europe’s economic trajectory: “Europe has gone from 90 per cent of US GDP to 65 per cent over 10 or 15 years. That’s not good. You’re losing.” Today’s chart puts this into perspective. Back in … Continued

NVIDIA’s market capitalization reached $4.18 trillion at yesterday’s close. The stock is now a 17-bagger over the past five years, and its valuation is rapidly converging with that of the entire Euro Stoxx 50 — a group of Europe’s 50 largest listed companies, currently worth $5.47 trillion. NVIDIA now makes up 8.19% of the S&P … Continued

In the short run, valuations may not matter much — as John Maynard Keynes famously said, “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” But over the long term, history shows a clear pattern: the higher the entry valuation, the lower the expected return. Today’s chart illustrates this well. There is a strong … Continued

The concentration in US equity markets isn’t just a matter of sentiment — it reflects a stark earnings reality. As Andrew Lapthorne from SG Research illustrates in this compelling chart, the only segment of the S&P 500 seeing meaningful profit growth is its top 10 stocks. Strip those out, and forward net income has been … Continued

The 30-year US Treasury yield has moved back above 5%, reflecting renewed concerns around inflation and fiscal pressures. June CPI data showed persistent service inflation and early signs that tariffs may be starting to impact core goods prices—leaving the Fed little room to cut rates in the near term. Higher long-term yields increase debt servicing … Continued

The MOVE Index, Wall Street’s bond volatility gauge, has dropped back to the bottom of its range — signalling remarkable calm despite rising political noise around Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While social media buzzes with resignation rumors, markets aren’t pricing in panic: futures show little change in rate expectations. But a forced exit would shake … Continued

We are not writing about Fed independence, a potential resignation of Jerome Powell, or EU tariffs this morning — not because these topics aren’t relevant, but because we don’t have any additional insights at this stage. This morning, European stock futures are pointing 0.6% lower, while the EU’s political leadership continues to struggle to negotiate … Continued