Category: Daily Instagraph

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of speaking about value investing at a conference organized by Investas (the Luxembourg association of private investors – www.investas.lu ), together with the Goldbridge Investment Club — Luxembourg’s fully student-driven investment club ( www.goldbridge.lu ). One slide captured the core idea particularly well: value investing is, at heart, a fundamental … Continued

The Fed left rates unchanged yesterday — and Powell’s message was essentially: stay the course. He acknowledged that the growth outlook has improved since the last meeting, which should support labor demand over time. But he also kept the door open on the labor market narrative, a clear sign the Fed wants maximum flexibility for … Continued

Sell-side strategists increasingly argue that higher US equity valuations are justified by a less volatile economy. The chart makes the point clearly: the share of months spent in recession fell from 19% (pre-1992) to 8% (post-1992). In that framework, lower macro volatility warrants a higher multiple. At European Capital Partners , we remain somewhat sceptical. … Continued

A quote often attributed to Isaac Newton says: “I can calculate the motion of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Newton invested early in the South Sea Company and made good money — then re-entered as speculation turned into mania and lost heavily. It’s a useful reminder: markets are a humbling machine. … Continued

Interesting chart from UBS (shared by Ben Carlson, Ritholtz Wealth Management). At the start of the 20th century, the US stock market represented 14.5% of global equity markets. Today, it represents 60.5%. The UK was the largest market in 1899 at roughly a quarter of the global total; it has now shrunk to 3.7%. Belgium … Continued

Was it a negotiation tactic? Another TACO ( Trump Always Chickens Out ) move? Markets certainly took President Trump’s latest comments that way and looked relieved. The chart is a useful reminder of the broader backdrop: Europe holds close to $3.6 trillion of US Treasuries — nearly 40% of all foreign-held Treasuries. This matters, but … Continued

President Trump has pushed the US “gunboat policy” to a new level, threatening an additional 10% tariff on several EU countries unless they accept a deal on Greenland. European leaders have now entered a fresh phase of escalation with Washington. On the economic side, the first-round hit looks manageable. Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% … Continued

Trump’s second presidency marks its first year. For investors, the past months have been anything but quiet: tariff announcements, renewed trade tensions, and repeated questions around central-bank independence have translated into headline risk and higher volatility. We start 2026 with another round of “gunboat diplomacy”, where global trade is increasingly used as a negotiating tool. … Continued

This chart from the Financial Times illustrates how US consumption has become increasingly concentrated. The top 10% of earners now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, while the bottom 80% has steadily lost share over the past three decades. From a macro and investor perspective, this matters: when demand is driven by a … Continued

Today’s chart comes from Octavian Adrian Tănase. Historically, productivity in the US financial sector moved broadly in line with labour demand: when margins were under pressure in a zero-rate world, efficiency was the name of the game, and headcount tended to follow activity. Since 2022, with the return of interest rates, that relationship has broken … Continued