Category: DAILY INSTAGRAPH

There is extensive press coverage currently on the so-called Trump trade. Indeed, there has been a notable shift into sectors expected to benefit from Trump’s policies, such as financials, industrials, and energy, and away from sectors perceived as vulnerable, like technology. Additionally, the dollar might strengthen due to more isolationist policies and potential higher inflation. … Continued

In 1989, at the peak of Japan’s economic bubble, the country represented 12% of the global GDP yet commanded 48% of the global market cap. Today, the US accounts for 18% of global GDP but dominates with 70% of the global market cap. Remarkably, the top 15 stocks in the US have a higher market … Continued

Semiconductor stocks faced a challenging week, with major US chip manufacturers Nvidia Corp., Advanced Micro Devices Inc., and Broadcom Inc. contributing to a nearly 7% decline in a key semiconductor index yesterday—the steepest drop since 2020. In Europe, ASML Holding NV plummeted 11% on Wednesday despite reporting robust orders. The primary factor behind this downturn … Continued

It’s all a matter of perspective: the combined value of the “Magnificent 7” stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—dwarfs major global equity markets. These companies are worth twice as much as the entire Chinese equity market, 2.5 times more than Japan’s, three times more than India’s, nearly five times more than France’s, and … Continued

Consumption in China continues to slow, evidenced by retail sales growing by just 2% in June—falling short of expectations and marking a significant disappointment for the political leadership ahead of this week’s Communist Party conclave. The housing market remains depressed, local governments are heavily indebted, foreign investors are divesting, and the population is aging. As … Continued

In the United States, presidential elections should be decided at the polls, not through an assassination attempt by a young shooter using his father’s rifle from a rooftop. With a triumphant fist shown to the world while leaving the stage, Trump emerged politically stronger from the bloodbath. Betting markets now give him a 65% chance … Continued

Despite slow economic growth and higher interest rates, equity market valuations overall look elevated compared to their historical norms, especially in some corners of the market like the US Mega-tech stocks. Elevated asset prices could signal over-optimism, increasing vulnerability to market corrections if earnings growth disappoints or economic conditions worsen. This has raised concerns among … Continued

The cumulative impact of the aggressive interest rate hikes implemented by the ECB and the Federal Reserve is being felt across the European and US economies, affecting various sectors and continuing to weigh on growth.  The lagged effects of these policy actions are dampening economic growth, as higher borrowing costs weigh on consumer spending, business … Continued

Another important investment theme put forward in our Q3 house-view is moderating inflation. Inflation has indeed moderated significantly, providing relief to consumers and businesses alike, but remains above central bank targets in both the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S., core PCE inflation stands around 2.6%, while the CPI is at 3.4%. The ECB, despite … Continued

Normalization of Interest Rates is another key theme in our Q3 house-view. After a prolonged period of historically low interest rates, central banks worldwide actively raised rates to combat persistent inflation, bringing policy rates closer to their long-term averages and returning interest rates to historical norms. Policymakers continue to strike a delicate balance between taming … Continued