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Category: Daily Instagraph

Hoped for the best, got the worst

By leon

While we were, of course, hoping for a positive outcome on Liberation Day, it took no more than 20 minutes into yesterday’s Trump press conference to realize we got the worst. Our initial, unfiltered takeaways are the following: What we are witnessing looks very much like a declaration of a trade war against the rest … Continued

Liberation day

By leon

Trump is set to unveil new tariffs today — yet even hours before the announcement, the details remain unsettled. A flat-rate system or country-specific levies are both being considered, with targets including the EU, Japan, and Canada. The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has now reached its highest level since 2015. At ECP, we believe such … Continued

April’s fish

By leon

It was a great honour for me and for all of us at ECP to welcome Warren Buffett yesterday here in Luxembourg. Mr. Buffett was en route from Omaha to Japan for a meeting with the management of one of Berkshire Hathaway’s newest holdings. Despite his tight schedule, he took the time to sit down … Continued

One swallow does not make a Summer

By leon

With just one trading session left in the quarter, the German equity market is on track to post its strongest first-quarter performance relative to the S&P 500 since 1960. A clear rotation is underway: investors are moving out of US equities and rediscovering the rest of the world — with Europe, in particular, starting to … Continued

The great discount

By leon

Exor’s net asset value rose by 9% last year, which Chairman & CEO John Elkann found a little disappointing compared to the MSCI World’s performance. The real engine was Ferrari, while difficulties at Stellantis held it back. Additionally, last year, the company increased its exposure to the healthcare sector, mainly through its stake in Philips. … Continued

Safety first

By leon

One of the recent additions to our SSF European Value Fund is Autoliv, a leading manufacturer of airbags. We appreciate Autoliv’s strong execution and its partnerships with all major OEMs, which underpin its solid market share in the automotive passive safety segment. We also like the fact that it’s not a bet on the success … Continued

Dr Copper

By leon

Often called Dr. Copper for its uncanny ability to reflect the health of the global economy, the metal is once again in the spotlight as traders brace for a major shift. Trump’s tariff threats are driving a massive flow of copper into the US, creating sharp price dislocations, draining global inventories, and tightening supply — … Continued

Out of sync

By leon

The tariff war launched by Trump 2.0 seems increasingly disconnected from the priorities of the average American voter. According to the survey highlighted by BCA Research below, inflation ranks as the number one concern, while globalization and trade come in at number sixteen—well behind issues like abortion and gun control. We remain firmly convinced that … Continued

De-dollarization

By leon

Foreign central banks are shifting strategically away from the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency, with the global dedollarization trend gaining traction. Driven by geopolitical concerns—such as the fear that other countries could also see the same freezing by the US of their currency reserves like Russia—and policy shifts like the Trump administration’s trade … Continued

The European Spring

By leon

For years, global investors have been underweight in European equities, citing a long list of structural issues that have hindered profitability and growth compared to the US. While these challenges remain unresolved, something is shifting on the Old Continent, fueling a renewed interest in European stocks. As we have highlighted repeatedly, the significant valuation gap … Continued