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Category: Daily Instagraph

Weaponized oil

By leon

Brent surged above $81 a barrel, the highest price in 4 months, after the US rolled out new sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, targeting exporters, insurers, and over 150 tankers. India and China may be forced to seek new suppliers, tightening an already fragile market. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has plans to ease output curbs later … Continued

Ice Age

By leon

As Bloomberg columnist John Authers comments, deflation’s icy grip tightens on China, as hopes for a robust stimulus fizzle. Property prices languish, weighed down by a mountain of local government debt north of 60 trillion yuan. Investor patience is wearing thin—bond yields keep tumbling, a stark signal that the world’s second-largest economy is flirting with … Continued

Bubbles ?

By leon

One of the most famous variations of this sentiment is attributed to Alan Greenspan, former Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, who frequently emphasized that you can’t confidently identify a bubble until after it has burst. In a 2002 speech, Greenspan stated: “We at the Federal Reserve recognized that, irrespective of the possibilities of a … Continued

German engineering meets US Big Tech

By leon

German mid-cap KION is a global leader in supply chain automation solutions, boasting a market cap of around €4.6 billion, which we own in our European Value Fund. Yesterday, the stock price jumped 9.6%, spurred by Jensen Huang’s NVIDIA keynote, where he showcased his new AI partnership with KION. The stock is still down 42% … Continued

Extreme concentration

By leon

The MSCI World Index, which comprises more than 1,400 companies across the globe, serves as the standard benchmark for most global equity funds and is the yardstick against which fund managers are measured. Last year, over 90% of the index’s gains were driven by U.S. stocks, implying that any manager who shunned American equities ran … Continued

Happy New Investment Year 2025

By leon

On behalf of the entire ECP team, I’d like to wish you a happy and prosperous 2025, filled with good health and success in all your personal, financial, and professional endeavors. Looking ahead, many market observers believe 2025 will mirror the past year, with ongoing outperformance by U.S. equities—particularly in technology. At ECP, however, we … Continued

Merry Xmas

By leon

As the year draws to a close, we can once again say that 2024 has been a strong vintage for investors. Looking ahead, 2025 will certainly bring new challenges. During the festive season, we plan to take a brief creative break to reflect on the year gone by and prepare for what lies ahead. On … Continued

Some stock analysis to do over Xmas

By leon

Novo Nordisk—Europe’s largest listed company by market capitalization—saw its stock price plummet by 21% on Friday following the release of underwhelming results for its latest weight-loss drug, Cagrisema. In a late-stage trial, patients lost 22.7% of their body weight, falling short of the 25% reduction Novo Nordisk had targeted and only narrowly surpassing the results … Continued

From zero to hero

By leon

Over the past 25 years, China has risen from near obscurity to claim the top spot in global automotive manufacturing, now accounting for 39% of worldwide production. Given that non-luxury car making has always been a numbers-driven business dating back to the era of the Ford Model T, it will be increasingly difficult for legacy … Continued

Central bank buying

By leon

As the price of gold has risen by 28.6% in USD terms in 2024, we believe the primary driver of this increase is heightened central bank purchasing. The renewed emphasis on gold as a strategic reserve may be fueled by inflationary concerns and the desire of non-U.S. central banks to reduce their dependence on the … Continued