Category: Daily Instagraph

China just posted a $100 billion goods surplus for March, pushing the Q1 total to $275 billion — up from $185 billion last year — and nearly $1.1 trillion over the past 12 months. Tariff front-running plays a role, but it’s not the whole story: China’s trade surplus spans well beyond the U.S. A few … Continued

As the unpredictable “alchemist tariff experiment” unfolds with fresh headlines like “Possible Temporary Reprieve for Autos” and “Initiation of Chips and Drugs Probes”, Mr. Market has shifted into a more benign mood, and equity investors are beginning to lick their wounds. While future U.S. policy remains largely unpredictable, there is a growing sense that the … Continued

Global equity markets are showing strength today, buoyed by President Trump’s decision to temporarily exempt certain electronics—such as smartphones and laptops—from tariffs. While this offers a short-term relief for companies like Apple and Dell, the administration has emphasized that these exemptions are only temporary. Given the unpredictability of trade policy from the White House, further … Continued

The “alchemist-in-chief” ignited a remarkable rally in equity markets yesterday, announcing a 10% tariff for 90 days on all trading partners except China. Markets reacted with enthusiasm: the Nasdaq surged by 12.2%, the S&P 500 gained 9.5%, and Japan’s market is up 8.6% this morning. European futures are also trading strongly higher. Meanwhile, Trump escalated … Continued

As we mentioned in our Sunday memo on recent market volatility: “Some observers suggest that Trump’s tariff strategy is less about protectionism and more about engineering a slowdown to push interest rates lower — a deliberate attempt to manage the cost of refinancing the $9 trillion in U.S. debt maturing by 2026… With the 10-year … Continued

Yesterday’s trading session was once again not for the faint of heart. The DAX moved an extraordinary 11% between its low and high, while the S&P 500 saw intraday swings of 7.8%. For any trader, this level of volatility is extremely difficult to manage—especially when it’s driven by quickly reversed rumors, like a supposed 90-day … Continued

Asian markets are in the red again this morning, and European equity futures are following suit as investors digest Donald Trump’s latest tariff rhetoric. It’s becoming increasingly evident that the resulting drag on global trade could weigh heavily on economic growth. Interestingly, some are now floating a more strategic — or conspiratorial — interpretation: that … Continued

While we were, of course, hoping for a positive outcome on Liberation Day, it took no more than 20 minutes into yesterday’s Trump press conference to realize we got the worst. Our initial, unfiltered takeaways are the following: What we are witnessing looks very much like a declaration of a trade war against the rest … Continued

Trump is set to unveil new tariffs today — yet even hours before the announcement, the details remain unsettled. A flat-rate system or country-specific levies are both being considered, with targets including the EU, Japan, and Canada. The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has now reached its highest level since 2015. At ECP, we believe such … Continued

It was a great honour for me and for all of us at ECP to welcome Warren Buffett yesterday here in Luxembourg. Mr. Buffett was en route from Omaha to Japan for a meeting with the management of one of Berkshire Hathaway’s newest holdings. Despite his tight schedule, he took the time to sit down … Continued