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Category: Daily Instagraph

Geopolitical supply risks

By leon

Equity markets sold off globally on Friday, shaken by renewed trade tensions between the United States and China. A new episode of “Truth Social diplomacy” from President Trump sent shockwaves through financial markets — with the Nasdaq down 3.5% and crypto assets tumbling amid fears of a renewed trade war. The trigger came as China … Continued

Money for nothing

By leon

Yesterday, Ferrari’s stock fell by 15.4%, its worst day ever, after the company unveiled an updated long-term earnings guidance at its Capital Markets Day that came in below analyst expectations. We find the market reaction somewhat intriguing for several reasons. The forecast in question concerns 2030, which is still five years away. Ferrari is, in … Continued

The rise of unprofitable tech

By leon

As of September 30th, 2025 has been a year where tech companies with no revenues or profits have outperformed almost everything else. The US market has become increasingly dominated by such speculative names, while profitable businesses lag behind. At European Capital Partners, we stay disciplined. Over time, it’s earnings and valuations that drive returns — … Continued

No tech tailwind in Europe

By leon

European Capital Partners was on roadshow in Munich yesterday, meeting institutional investors to present our European Value Strategy. One discussion point stood out: how our investment philosophy has evolved over the past two decades to navigate Europe’s structural and economic headwinds. Several participants voiced concerns about Europe’s competitiveness — not only France’s current malaise but … Continued

The shelf life of a croissant

By leon

Since Lecornu’s appointment last month, France’s credit rating has been downgraded by two agencies amid concerns that political paralysis will block any fiscal repair. Moody’s will update its assessment on October 24. Recent indicators suggest that uncertainty is already weighing on the broader economy as households and companies postpone spending and investment. Politically, Macron is … Continued

The AI doctor

By leon

The market capitalization of NVIDIA now exceeds that of all the world’s major pharmaceutical companies combined. If we think this through, equity investors should ideally allocate more capital to innovative pharma companies — to ensure the continued development of new drugs and the high-quality production of these treatments. Pharma companies are rewarded for their R&D … Continued

American dream alive

By leon

Amidst the (geo)political noise, much has been said this year about the “end of US exceptionalism” and rising appetite for equities elsewhere, notably Europe. Yet reality tells a different story. 2025 so far has been a two-step: early-year diversification away from the US — which benefited Europe to some extent — followed by a strong … Continued

Back to pharma ?

By leon

Pharma stocks had yesterday one of their strongest days in years. The S&P 500 Pharma Index surged over 5% yesterday, pushing the sector back into positive territory for 2025 (see chart). Tariffs that first looked threatening ended up favouring companies with strong local production, Pfizer struck a pragmatic deal with Washington, and the new TrumpRx … Continued

Better than the State

By leon

Mr. Market has decided that LVMH now pays a lower yield on a 10-year bond than the French government on bonds of the same maturity in 2033. In other words, investors today perceive less credit risk in the world’s leading luxury group than in the French Republic itself. At first sight, this feels counterintuitive. After … Continued

168 cuts

By leon

2025 has so far been marked by geopolitical and trade tension, with tariff decisions from the US administration threatening to reverse decades of globalization and disrupt global trade. Nevertheless, financial markets have shown strong resilience, quickly recovering the losses seen around “Liberation Day”, April 2, 2025, when the US unveiled sweeping tariff measures. A key … Continued