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Category: Daily Instagraph

Dr Copper

By leon

Often called Dr. Copper for its uncanny ability to reflect the health of the global economy, the metal is once again in the spotlight as traders brace for a major shift. Trump’s tariff threats are driving a massive flow of copper into the US, creating sharp price dislocations, draining global inventories, and tightening supply — … Continued

Out of sync

By leon

The tariff war launched by Trump 2.0 seems increasingly disconnected from the priorities of the average American voter. According to the survey highlighted by BCA Research below, inflation ranks as the number one concern, while globalization and trade come in at number sixteen—well behind issues like abortion and gun control. We remain firmly convinced that … Continued

De-dollarization

By leon

Foreign central banks are shifting strategically away from the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency, with the global dedollarization trend gaining traction. Driven by geopolitical concerns—such as the fear that other countries could also see the same freezing by the US of their currency reserves like Russia—and policy shifts like the Trump administration’s trade … Continued

The European Spring

By leon

For years, global investors have been underweight in European equities, citing a long list of structural issues that have hindered profitability and growth compared to the US. While these challenges remain unresolved, something is shifting on the Old Continent, fueling a renewed interest in European stocks. As we have highlighted repeatedly, the significant valuation gap … Continued

The Price of Long-Term Investing

By leon

A USD 10,000 investment in the US stock market in 1990 would be worth USD 324,808 today. This remarkable return, however, came at a cost: significant drawdowns along the way. The most severe declines occurred during the dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis. Even five years ago, at the height of the pandemic, the … Continued

Market valuations

By leon

The relative attractiveness of major equity markets remains largely unchanged since the recent decline of the Mag-7. The S&P 500 is now trading at 21.1 times forward earnings—slightly cheaper than at the start of the year but still at a historically high premium compared to its 20-year average. Europe continues to trade at a significant … Continued

Time better spent

By leon

As rightly pointed out on Bloomberg in John Authers column, strategists’ year end targets for the S&P 500 have hardly moved over the last weeks. In the meantime, and thanks to the (geo)political and economic turbulences induced by Trump 2.0 , the investment landscape has fundamentally changed for equities. There is a great rotation out … Continued

The elephant in the room

By leon

As the annual political brinkmanship over a potential U.S. government shutdown unfolds, the deeper, unresolved issue looms large: the national debt. The United States now carries a staggering $36.56 trillion in total debt. Over the past 12 months, the country has spent $1.178 trillion on interest payments alone – surpassing the $886 billion allocated for … Continued

Change in leadership

By leon

In the current market turbulence, we are witnessing stark disparities in the scale of equity corrections. Since January 21, developed markets have underperformed emerging markets by 7%, growth stocks have lagged value by 11%, US large caps have trailed the rest of the world by 11%, and cyclicals have underperformed defensives by 18%. Within developed … Continued

Turbulent conditions

By leon

The sea of red in equity markets shows no signs of abating. The S&P 500 has now declined 8.6% since February 19, 2025, while the Mag-7 stocks have plunged 20.5% since December 17, 2024. Just yesterday, the S&P 500 wiped out $1.4 trillion in market capitalization. A mix of high valuations, geopolitical tensions, and economic … Continued