Category: Daily Instagraph

Office space vacancy is currently at its highest level in the US since 2005. On the other side of the equation there is 46 bn USD in variable rate office debt that will mature in 2023 and will need to be refinanced ( source: Syzbank ). This all will happen in a context of higher … Continued

12 months forward Price-to-Earnings ratio of European banks has reached a low of 6.5 times, clearly a crisis level as during the Covid-19, the sovereign debt or the 2008 financial crisis. After the trouble with regional banks in the US and the disappearance of Credit Suisse over only one weekend, the stress amongst investors remains … Continued

The recent problems in the banking sector appear to be self-inflicted by the weakest players. So far, so good. However commercial real estate may be the next bigger structural headache to come for investors and banks alike. A toxic combination of higher interest rates, a possible recession and more work from home after the COVID … Continued

After a series of disappointments, the fundamentals and operating environment for the French pharmaceutical group Sanofi are improving. Following positive litigation news in the Zantac class action late last year, yesterday the company could indeed present rather stunning late stage clinical results for its blockbuster drug Dupixent when it is used for the treatment of … Continued

There is in our humble opinion little to comment on the Fed’s action and comments yesterday except their need to satisfy 2 opposing camps: on the one hand the comments and a 25 bps hike need to be dovish enough to reassure the banking system and, on the other hand, hawkish enough to reassure markets … Continued

The latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey illustrates the change in mood amongst professional fund managers. The risk of a systemic credit event is now considered by far the biggest tail risk for financial markets replacing inflation as the top worry. Hawkish central banks, geopolitics, recession risks and stock crash worries are left far behind. … Continued

The oil price has lost 44% since June last year. Over the past weeks it has continued to weaken due to the crisis englobing SVB to Credit Suisse. As investors like easy narratives, we started to see comparisons with the behaviour of the oil price during the Global Financial Crisis. To us this looks premature … Continued

A take-over for 3 bn CHF (0.75 CHF): today’s headline on Credit Suisse in the FT reads much better than the underlying reality is. It is now clear that Credit Suisse could not have survived without this UBS take-over. Let this sink in: a modern bank run on a systemically relevant bank created a situation … Continued

Today’s graph is about a fundamental change in the bond market that occurred over the last 10 days: it summarizes the expectations for further 25 bps interest rate increases by the Fed. The trouble in the banking sector, that started with SVB but now englobed banks globally like systemically relevant Credit Suisse, has fundamentally changed … Continued

The Swiss National Bank stepped in yesterday night to allow Credit Suisse to borrow 50 bn CHF from a central bank liquidity facility and to make a tender offer to buy back up to three billion francs of dollar- and euro-denominated debt. This lifeline will probably help to take out some of the drama and … Continued